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LE DINAMICHE DEL DEBITO PUBBLICO
La formula per le dinamiche del debito pubblico è:
B + i - T - GB ∙ B-1 - 1t t t t t
Dove:
- B: stock di debito al tempo t
- i: tasso di interesse sul debito
- G: spesa pubblica (al netto degli interessi sul debito)
- T: entrate pubbliche
Partendo dalla prima equazione, dopo aver spostato sul lato sinistro il termine Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1Yt-1
y y y Y Y−1 −1t t t t t t1 1−b =i∙ + −tb b g−1t t−1 t t t1+ z 1+ z1 1−b +b −b =i + −tb ∙b g−1 −1t t−1 t t t−1 t t1+ z 1+ z( )1 i−b =b −1+ + + −tb gt t−1 t−1 t t1+ z 1+ z( )i−z−b =b + −tb gt t−1 t−1 t t1+ z
Possiamo quindi scrivere la variazione del rapporto tra debito e PIL come:
g¿ t−t[¿ ]t( )i−z−b =b +¿b t t−1 t−1 1+ z
Le variabili che definiscono il segno della variazione del rapporto tra debito e PIL sono quindi:
- Il saldo primario
- Il livello del rapporto tra debito/PIL al periodo precedente
- Il tasso di crescita del PIL
- Il tasso di interesse pagato sui titoli di debito
CONSIDERAZIONI g¿ −tt[¿ ]}t
Da questa equazione { si possono fare considerazioni su alcune possibili situazioni
( )i−z−b =b +¿b t t−1 t−1 1+ z>b 0(ipotizzando che
)−1t g¿ t>t(¿ )1. : il rapporto debito/PIL converge nel tempo al suo valore di statot ¿z> ie disavanzo primario bstazionario (aumenta o diminuisce a seconda del valore di )−1t62( )>z< ie disavanzo primario g t2. : il rapporto debito/PIL esplodet t( )<tz< ie avanzo primario g :3. se il saldo primario è positivo in misura sufficientemente ampia, ilt trapporto debito/PIL si riduce, se questa condizione non è soddisfatta il rapporto esplode.( )<tz> ie avanzo primario g :4. il rapporto debito/PIL si riduce.t tL’EVOLUZIONE DEL DEBITO PUBBLICO ITALIANO (IN RAPPORTO AL PIL)LE DETERMINANTI DELL’EVOLUZIONEFINO AI PRIMI ANNI ‘80Il periodo tra il 1970 e l'inizio degli anni '80 è quello che si caratterizza per i peggiori saldi primari (recordnegativo oltre il 9% nel 1975).È l'effetto dell'estensione della spesa sociale, non adeguatamente compensato sul lato delle
entrate63Rispetto alle dimensioni del deficit primario, l'impatto sul debito è relativamente limitato da due fattori:- il livello relativamente contenuto del rapporto debito/PIL all'inizio degli anni '70 (era ancora il 58% nel 1980)
- gli elevati tassi di inflazione legati ad una politica monetaria accomodante, che hanno portato a tassi di interesse reali molto bassi e talvolta negativi (differenza i - z favorevole)
- Il rischio di crisi finanziaria per l'Italia
- La definizione di un percorso di unificazione monetaria a livello Europeo
compensare la perdita dello strumento monetario edella flessibilità sui tassi di cambio)
2. mobilità dei fattori all'interno della AVO
3. un bilancio centrale di dimensioni adeguate a poter assorbire shock asimmetrici attraverso laredistribuzione tra regioni diverse.
RAGIONI ECONOMICHE DEI VINCOLI:
L'UME manca in buona parte delle caratteristiche desiderabili delle AVO.
la funzione svolta dal bilancio centrale potrebbe essere compensata dalla possibilità per i Paesi di generaredisavanzi in occasione di fasi recessive, che però è preclusa dai trattati.
il senso della preclusione è di evitare comportamenti opportunistici da parte di singoli Paesi, che potrebbero nonavere sufficienti incentivi ad evitare deficit eccessivi nell'aspettativa di un salvataggio da parte di altri Paesi e/odella Banca Centrale.
il salvataggio comporterebbe comunque un costo per gli altri Paesi che può assumere diverse forme, quali:- il costo del debito
del Patto di Stabilità e Crescita5. introduzione di un meccanismo di correzione automatica per i Paesi con deficit eccessivo6. rafforzamento del ruolo della Commissione Europea nel monitoraggio e nell'applicazione delle regole del Patto di Stabilità e Crescita7. introduzione di un meccanismo di solidarietà finanziaria per i Paesi in difficoltà economica8. creazione di un Fondo Monetario Europeo per fornire assistenza finanziaria ai Paesi in crisi9. introduzione di un meccanismo di sorveglianza fiscale preventiva per i Paesi dell'Eurozona10. rafforzamento del coordinamento delle politiche economiche tra i Paesi membri dell'Unione Europea. Queste modifiche hanno lo scopo di garantire una maggiore disciplina fiscale e una maggiore stabilità economica all'interno dell'Unione Europea, al fine di prevenire future crisi finanziarie e promuovere la crescita economica sostenibile.delle regole (sanzioni fino ad un max dello 0.5%del PIL) 5. obiettivo su rapporto deficit/PIL strutturale: max 0.5% (1% per Paesi con debito/PIL significativamente minore del 60%) 6. previsione di meccanismi automatici di correzione in caso di deviazione dall'obiettivo (es. aumento aliquote IVA) 7. recepimento delle regole in norme nazionali, preferibilmente di rango costituzionaleIL NUOVO ARTICOLO 81 DELLA COSTITUZIONE:
- Lo Stato assicura l'equilibrio tra le entrate e le spese del proprio bilancio, tenendo conto delle fasi avverse e delle fasi favorevoli del ciclo economico.
- Il ricorso all'indebitamento è consentito solo al fine di considerare gli effetti del ciclo economico e, previa autorizzazione delle Camere adottata a maggioranza assoluta dei rispettivi componenti, al verificarsi di eventi eccezionali.
- Ogni legge che importi nuovi o maggiori oneri provvede ai mezzi per farvi fronte.
LA LEGGE DI BILANCIO:
Le Camere ogni anno approvano con legge il bilancio e il
- rendiconto consuntivo presentati dal Governo (Art. 81Cost. c. 4)
La legge di bilancio è dunque lo strumento fondamentale di manovra per la finanza pubblica.
La legge di bilancio si articola in due sezioni:
- prima parte contenente innovazioni legislative e definizione del saldo da finanziare (legge di stabilità)
- seconda parte con previsioni di bilancio, coerenti con il contenuto della parte precedente
L'Italia dal 1992 ad oggi:
EURO E SPESA PER INTERESSI 66
VARIAZIONE RAPPORTO DEBITO/PIL E DETERMINANTI
LA COMPOSIZIONE DELLA SPESE
LA SPESA PER INVESTIMENTI 67
L'EVOLUZIONE DEL DEBITO SOTTO I VINCOLI
La fase successiva al 1992 può essere suddivisa nei seguenti periodi:
- dal 1992 all'inizio degli anni 2000
- dai primi 2000 alla crisi economico-finanziaria
- la crisi economico finanziaria
1. DAL 1992 ALL'INIZIO DEGLI ANNI 2000
L'Italia intraprende uno straordinario sforzo di risanamento, con l'obiettivo di centrare i parametri per entrare
findall'inizio nell'UME. Si generano ampi avanzi primari e disavanzi che convergono verso l'obiettivo del 3%, grazie soprattutto all'aumento della pressione fiscale (l'unica voce di spesa ridotta in modo sostanziale è quella per investimenti).