Tesi - Le determinanti degli FDI nei paesi ASEAN: un'analisi empirica

G

Brunei

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 16 108.5413 7.975211 95.64958 119.3068

fdi_inward 33 3885.886 4670.297 7.48 13302.33

fdi_gdp 33 41.96997 43.75837 .1511368 133.0959

gdp_grth_r~e 33 .254379 4.866364 -19.82625 4.75858

cpi 33 90.51184 13.06651 61.48783 107.9449

real_exchn~e 15 100.762 5.237279 96.39566 116.7446

gdp_procap~a 33 21010.59 8336.3 10809.83 39482.75

labour_force 33 134.1155 41.91792 70.621 202.5379

G

Cambogia

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 21 103.2832 36.76315 34.30739 145.2179

fdi_inward 33 1673.929 2244.139 37.74641 8413.1

fdi_gdp 33 24.11851 20.56707 1.678952 59.41543

gdp_grth_r~e 33 6.444398 5.106681 -5.668406 21.53152

cpi 19 118.2715 36.24695 72.97253 183.8999

real_exchn~e 15 99.31522 3.280911 93.9231 105.0945

gdp_procap~a 33 348.1585 242.8513 118.1458 977.9996

labour_force 33 5372.73 1601.731 3202.235 8311.734

G

Filippine

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 28 66.50692 24.51848 37.71276 110.1982

fdi_inward 33 10128.58 8525.847 1280.88 31027

fdi_gdp 33 10.12046 3.825599 3.562599 16.98466

gdp_grth_r~e 33 3.33774 3.417633 -7.323683 7.632262

cpi 33 81.63143 48.26935 12.79688 169.6005

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 1143.278 514.116 595.8674 2594.226

labour_force 33 28617.18 6881.676 17824.83 40691.21

30

Indonesia

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 32 51.77015 12.40356 35.73542 94.29195

fdi_inward 33 37611.94 53173.94 4559.45 205656.3

fdi_gdp 33 11.23437 6.774611 3.630302 29.93673

gdp_grth_r~e 32 5.55008 3.995261 -13.12652 9.877029

cpi 23 44.39973 33.75922 12.61899 124.7689

real_exchn~e 0

gdp_procap~a 33 1161.342 841.6691 475.4605 3588.791

labour_force 33 89189.95 20933.18 55482.39 121705.8

G

Laos

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 28 57.47196 12.6982 36.30696 88.21508

fdi_inward 33 538.9973 686.3607 .55 2482.878

fdi_gdp 33 16.47807 14.83983 .0846012 40.7187

gdp_grth_r~e 33 6.697929 3.194319 -2.010201 15.33181

cpi 25 96.30477 83.93925 3.43559 232.9632

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 409.6588 345.1464 98.38391 1442.465

labour_force 33 2289.493 551.4431 1501.128 3331.855

G

Malesia

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 33 155.3549 38.50066 97.27087 211.8385

fdi_inward 33 37371.46 33740.31 5168.74 132399.7

fdi_gdp 33 31.40847 11.17996 17.7519 57.79002

gdp_grth_r~e 33 5.937189 3.811315 -7.359415 10.0027

cpi 33 89.29104 23.45947 51.42797 130.383

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 4390.838 2400.554 1847.366 10350.27

labour_force 33 8620.767 2412.821 4975.973 12479.8

G

Singapore

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 33 360.7431 42.09166 293.7785 445.6204

fdi_inward 33 159810.3 198702 5350.654 682395.6

fdi_gdp 33 123.9303 73.63601 44.4192 261.0558

gdp_grth_r~e 33 6.778 4.237795 -2.170318 14.76322

cpi 33 94.53596 15.16332 67.44337 129.0406

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 21924.02 13300.81 4988.818 51454.95

labour_force 33 1871.425 528.7457 1117.381 2916.56

G

Tailandia

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 33 93.19961 33.45445 46.42756 142.0991

fdi_inward 33 39463.99 47060.8 980.6301 159124.6

fdi_gdp 33 19.01716 13.99743 2.93012 41.77808

gdp_grth_r~e 33 5.537874 4.136189 -7.650372 13.28811

cpi 33 4.19e+07 2.41e+08 41.88073 1.38e+09

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 2305.529 1371.666 704.831 5592.259

labour_force 33 33168.18 4733.54 23233.93 40130.37

31

Vietnam

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

openess 23 115.3066 39.43512 58.9331 172.718

fdi_inward 33 15388.26 20213.53 9.09 72530.3

fdi_gdp 33 26.72641 21.35225 .3794483 53.30638

gdp_grth_r~e 33 6.41749 2.464634 -3.496739 9.54048

cpi 18 137.9211 56.72264 83.52475 269.0146

real_exchn~e 15 99.47402 10.23528 81.40179 115.9231

gdp_procap~a 33 422.9322 424.4521 34.19847 1566.97

labour_force 33 38225.01 9198.799 23813.07 53464.12

2) Risultati Granger causality test

Birmania

openess Min MAIC = 4.917692 at lag 1 with RMSE 10.15068

. test L1.openess . regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.openess

( 1) L.openess = 0 Source SS df MS Number of obs = 32

F( 2, 29) = 1677.08

F( 1, 29) = 4.49 Model 330056592 2 165028296 Prob > F = 0.0000

Prob > F = 0.0427 Residual 2853654.91 29 98401.8933 R-squared = 0.9914

Adj R-squared = 0.9908

Total 332910247 31 10739040.2 Root MSE = 313.69

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. 1.153795 .0224436 51.41 0.000 1.107892 1.199697

openess

L1. -7.311406 3.449861 -2.12 0.043 -14.36716 -.2556475

_cons 238.8897 124.192 1.92 0.064 -15.11134 492.8908

real gdp growth rate Min MAIC = 2.479235 at lag 6 with RMSE 2.05326

. regress fdi_inward L(1/6).fdi_inward L(1/6).gdp_grth_rate

. test L1.gdp_grth_rate L2.gdp_grth_rate L3.gdp_grth_rate L4.gdp_grth_rate L5.gdp_grth_rate L6.gd

> p_grth_rate Source SS df MS Number of obs = 27

F( 12, 14) = 175.03

( 1) L.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Model 278037698 12 23169808.2 Prob > F = 0.0000

( 2) L2.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Residual 1853262.13 14 132375.866 R-squared = 0.9934

( 3) L3.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Adj R-squared = 0.9877

( 4) L4.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Total 279890960 26 10765036.9 Root MSE = 363.83

( 5) L5.gdp_grth_rate = 0

( 6) L6.gdp_grth_rate = 0 fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

F( 6, 14) = 0.42 fdi_inward

Prob > F = 0.8543 L1. 1.55745 .2952959 5.27 0.000 .9241036 2.190797

L2. -.9142582 .5138446 -1.78 0.097 -2.016345 .1878288

L3. .8139579 .5563636 1.46 0.166 -.3793233 2.007239

L4. -.7363659 .6002513 -1.23 0.240 -2.023777 .5510451

L5. 1.043386 .5805014 1.80 0.094 -.2016655 2.288438

L6. -.589336 .3581013 -1.65 0.122 -1.357387 .1787149

gdp_grth_rate

L1. -17.43443 19.51626 -0.89 0.387 -59.29265 24.42379

L2. -9.317535 23.23509 -0.40 0.694 -59.15184 40.51677

L3. 1.22999 22.00712 0.06 0.956 -45.97059 48.43057

L4. -.7289335 22.16548 -0.03 0.974 -48.26915 46.81128

L5. -5.179992 23.41394 -0.22 0.828 -55.3979 45.03791

L6. -13.42459 21.10957 -0.64 0.535 -58.70011 31.85093

_cons 134.1858 142.1322 0.94 0.361 -170.6575 439.0291

32

cpi Min MAIC = 7.033879 at lag 1 with RMSE 30.58359

. regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.cpi

. test L1.cpi Source SS df MS Number of obs = 32

F( 2, 29) = 1539.55

( 1) L.cpi = 0 Model 329804035 2 164902018 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual 3106211.47 29 107110.74 R-squared = 0.9907

F( 1, 29) = 1.77 Adj R-squared = 0.9900

Prob > F = 0.1939 Total 332910247 31 10739040.2 Root MSE = 327.28

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. 1.034317 .0750408 13.78 0.000 .8808412 1.187793

cpi

L1. 1.292004 .9715482 1.33 0.194 -.6950348 3.279043

_cons 74.19306 85.52598 0.87 0.393 -100.7272 249.1133

real exchange rate Min MAIC = 5.47278 at lag 1 with RMSE 3.537244

. regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.real_exchng_rate

. test L1.real_exchng_rate Source SS df MS Number of obs = 14

( 1) L.real_exchng_rate = 0 F( 2, 11) = 300.59

Model 93499099.2 2 46749549.6 Prob > F = 0.0000

F( 1, 11) = 0.19 Residual 1710758.8 11 155523.527 R-squared = 0.9820

Prob > F = 0.6699 Adj R-squared = 0.9788

Total 95209858 13 7323835.23 Root MSE = 394.36

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. 1.218304 .0586129 20.79 0.000 1.089298 1.34731

real_exchng_rate

L1. 5.873603 13.41345 0.44 0.670 -23.6492 35.3964

_cons -1137.052 1192.198 -0.95 0.361 -3761.062 1486.959

gdp procapita Min MAIC = 8.333148 at lag 1 with RMSE 54.66014

. regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.gdp_procapita

. test L1.gdp_procapita Source SS df MS Number of obs = 32

( 1) L.gdp_procapita = 0 F( 2, 29) = 2055.89

Model 330578704 2 165289352 Prob > F = 0.0000

F( 1, 29) = 11.99 Residual 2331543.29 29 80398.0445 R-squared = 0.9930

Prob > F = 0.0017 Adj R-squared = 0.9925

Total 332910247 31 10739040.2 Root MSE = 283.55

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. 1.035694 .032542 31.83 0.000 .9691387 1.10225

gdp_procapita

L1. 1.392709 .4021833 3.46 0.002 .5701515 2.215266

_cons -87.59337 76.22698 -1.15 0.260 -243.4951 68.30831

33

labour force Min MAIC = 12.45949 at lag 1 with RMSE 283.7993

. regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.labour_force

. test L1.labour_force Source SS df MS Number of obs = 32

F( 2, 29) = 1463.49

( 1) L.labour_force = 0 Model 329644201 2 164822100 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual 3266046.26 29 112622.285 R-squared = 0.9902

F( 1, 29) = 0.26 Adj R-squared = 0.9895

Prob > F = 0.6121 Total 332910247 31 10739040.2 Root MSE = 335.59

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. 1.159144 .059918 19.35 0.000 1.036598 1.28169

labour_force

L1. -.0231547 .0451744 -0.51 0.612 -.1155467 .0692374

_cons 465.3045 853.2474 0.55 0.590 -1279.782 2210.391

Brunei

openess Min MAIC = 4.025817 at lag 1 with RMSE 5.183125

. regress fdi_inward L1.fdi_inward L1.openess

. test L1.openess Source SS df MS Number of obs = 16

F( 2, 13) = 171.42

( 1) L.openess = 0 Model 196093395 2 98046697.5 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual 7435511.97 13 571962.46 R-squared = 0.9635

F( 1, 13) = 0.82 Adj R-squared = 0.9578

Prob > F = 0.3812 Total 203528907 15 13568593.8 Root MSE = 756.28

fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

fdi_inward

L1. .9908785 .0575556 17.22 0.000 .8665372 1.11522

openess

L1. 24.3704 26.88692 0.91 0.381 -33.71526 82.45607

_cons -1829.831 3115.811 -0.59 0.567 -8561.132 4901.47

real gdp growth rate Min MAIC = 1.70059 at lag 9 with RMSE 1.375867

. regress fdi_inward L(1/9).fdi_inward L(1/9).gdp_grth_rate

. test L1.gdp_grth_rate L2.gdp_grth_rate L3.gdp_grth_rate L4.gdp_grth_rate L5.gdp_grth_rate L6.gd

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 24

> p_grth_rate L7.gdp_grth_rate L8.gdp_grth_rate L9.gdp_grth_rate F( 18, 5) = 27.16

Model 507459258 18 28192181 Prob > F = 0.0009

( 1) L.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Residual 5190942.97 5 1038188.59 R-squared = 0.9899

( 2) L2.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Adj R-squared = 0.9534

( 3) L3.gdp_grth_rate = 0 Total 512650201 23 22289139.2 Root MSE = 1018.9

( 4) L4.gdp_grth_rate = 0

( 5) L5.gdp_grth_rate = 0

( 6) L6.gdp_grth_rate = 0 fdi_inward Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

( 7) L7.gdp_grth_rate = 0

( 8) L8.gdp_grth_rate = 0 fdi_inward

( 9) L9.gdp_grth_rate = 0 L1. .9924791 .4299202 2.31 0.069 -.112666 2.097624

L2. .0929296 .6137368 0.15 0.886 -1.484731 1.67059

F( 9, 5) = 0.42 L3. -.0110469 .5686431 -0.02 0.985 -1.472791 1.450697

Prob > F = 0.8792 L4. -.4186414 .6276069 -0.67 0.534 -2.031956 1.194674

L5. .2215307 .9321688 0.24 0.822 -2.174686 2.617747

L6. .2165916 .8841305 0.24 0.816 -2.056138 2.489321

L7. .0521561 .715683 0.07 0.945 -1.787566 1.891878

L8. .1250495 .7251079 0.17 0.870 -1.7