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UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING BEHAVIOUR
Trend: a long-term upward or downward movement in data.
Irregular variations: are caused by unusual circumstances, not reflexive of typical behaviour.
Cycles: wavelike variations lasting more than one year.
Seasonality: Short-term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day.
Time-series forecasting: Naive forecast
Uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast:
The forecast for a time period is equal to the previous time period's value
Can be used with:
- A stable time series
- Seasonal variations
- Trend
Time-series forecasting: Averaging
These techniques work best when a series tends to vary about an average:
Averaging techniques smooth variations in the data
They can handle step changes or gradual changes in the level of a series
Techniques:
- Moving average
- Weighted moving average
- Exponential smoothing
1. Moving average: technique that averages a
number of the most recent actual value in generating a forecast. Example: Period Demand 1 422 2 403 3 434 4 405 5 41 *most recent demands - 3-period moving average: F6= (43+40+41) /3= 41.33 - four-period moving average forecast: F8= (150+140+120+130)/4= 135 2. Weighted moving average: The most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a forecast. The choice of weights, w, is somewhat arbitrary and involves some trial and error. Example: Look at the table 1) F6= 0.40(41)+0.30(40)+0.20(43)+0.10(40)= 41 3. Linear trend: A simple data plot can reveal the existence and nature of a trend. Linear trend equation (see excel exercise). Strategic capacity for P&S Capacity Planning Capacity is the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle. Capacity needs include: - Equipment - Space - Employee skills - Employee's time We should distinguish between Multiple measures of capacity: design capacity and effective capacity. - Design capacity: The maximum output rate orService capacity is the maximum amount of work that an operation, process, or facility is designed for.
Effective capacity is the design capacity minus allowances such as personal time and maintenance. For example, if a machinery can work for 24 hours but the business is open only 8 hours, the effective capacity would be lower than the design capacity since the machinery works only for 8 hours.
The determinants of effective capacity include:
- Facilities
- Product and service factors
- Process factors
- Human factors
- Policy factors
- Operational factors
- Supply chain factors
- External factors
The effectiveness of a measuring system is determined by the actual output achieved, which cannot exceed the effective capacity. Efficiency and utilization are measured as percentages.
For example:
- Design capacity = 50 trucks per day
- Effective capacity = 40 trucks per day
- Actual output = 36 trucks per day
Efficiency = Actual output / Effective capacity = 36 / 40 = 90%
Utilization = Actual output / Design capacity = 36 / 50 = 72%
Capacity is an important measure for strategy formulation.
Strategies are typically based on capacity.
1: how many pies must be sold in order to break even? To answer this question, we can use the cost-volume analysis formula. The fixed cost (FC) in this case is $6000/month, the variable cost per unit (v) is $2, and the retail price per unit (R) is $7. The formula to calculate the break-even point (BEP) is: BEP = FC / (R - v) Substituting the values, we get: BEP = $6000 / ($7 - $2) BEP = $6000 / $5 BEP = 1200 pies Therefore, in order to break even, 1200 pies must be sold.2: what would be the profit (loss) be if 1000 pies are made and sold in one month?
Question 3: how many pies must be sold to realize a profit of $4000?
Question 4: if 2000 can be sold, and a profit target is $5000, what price should be charged per pie
Solution 1:
$Q = = 1200 pies
BEP $ $
Solution 2: Profit = TR-TC= R*Q – (FC+Q*v)
Profit = 1000*$7-($6000+1000*$2)= $7000-$8000= -$1000 (loss)
Solution 3: Profit = TR-TC= R*Q – (FC+Q*v)
$4000 = $7*Q – ($6000+Q*$2)
Q= ($6000+$4000)/$5= 2000 pies
Solution 4 : Profit = TR-TC= R*Q – (FC+Q*v)
Profit = Q(R-v) – FC
$5000 = 2000*R – ($6000+$2*2000)
$15000/2000=RR=$7,5 per pie
Assumptions:
- One product is involved
- Everything produced can be sold
- The variable cost per unit is the same regardless of the volume
- Fixed costs do not change with volume changes
- The revenue per unit is the same regardless of the volume
- Revenue per unit exceeds variable cost per unit
Organizing & LendingEffective groups and teams
1. Intensity
A specific, overriding team goal / objective
Groups’ and Teams’ Contributions to Organizational Effectiveness
Groups and teams can:
- Enhance performance Synergy: “The whole is more than the sum of its parts.”
- Increase responsiveness to customers diversity
- Increase innovation variety of skills
- Increase motivation and satisfaction social interaction
Types of Groups and Teams in Organizations
Formal groups and teams created by managers (e.g. cross-functional teams, cross-cultural teams, TMT) - A group that managers establish to achieve organizational goals
Informal groups created by organizational members (friendship groups or interest groups) - A group that managers or nonmanagerial employees form to help achieve their own goals or to meet their own needs
Keys to Effective Self-Managed Teams
Give the team enough responsibility and autonomy to be truly self-managing.
The team’s task should be complex enough to include many
different steps.
- Select members carefully for their diversity, skills, and enthusiasm.
- Managers should guide and coach, not supervise.
- Analyze training needs and be sure training is provided.
- Group dynamics
Five key elements of group dynamics are:
- Group size, task and roles
- Group leadership
- Group development
- Group norms
- Group cohesiveness
- Group size
Small groups:
- Small groups tend to interact more with each other and find it easier to coordinate their efforts.
- They tend to be more motivated, satisfied, and committed.
- They find it easier to share information.
- They are better able to see the importance of their personal contributions for group success
Large groups:
- They have more resources at their disposal to achieve group goals, such as the knowledge, experience, skills, and abilities of group members, as well as their actual time and effort.
- They can also capitalize upon the advantages that stem from the division of
Labour — splitting the work to be performed into tasks and assigning tasks to individual workers.
Group Task and Interdependence
Task interdependence: Degree to which the work performed by one member of the group influences the work performed by other members.
3 types of task interdependence (J.D. Thompson):
- Pooled
- Sequential
- Reciprocal
Group Role
A set of behaviors and tasks that a member of a group is expected to perform because of his or her position in the group.
Group Leadership
Effective leadership is a key ingredient in high performing groups, teams, and organizations.
Formal vs informal leadership
Group Development
Group norms: Shared guidelines or rules for behavior that most group members follow.
Conformity and deviance
Group Cohesiveness
The degree to which members are attracted to their group.
Sources and consequences of group cohesiveness
Motivating Group Members to Achieve Organizational Goals
Members should benefit when the group performs well — rewards can be
monetary or in other forms, such as special recognition. Individual compensation is a combination of both individual and group performance. Social loafing: The tendency of individuals to put forth less effort in a group than individually - Results in possibly lower group performance and failure to attain group goals How can we solve it? How to reduce social loafing 1. Make individual efforts identifiable and accountable. 2. Emphasize the valuable contributions of individual members. 3. Keep group size at an appropriate level. The case: ZAPPOS Main event Since 2005: - dual job interviews (one for business and one for company culture) - "customer service boot camp" 2014: HOLACRACY: "no job titles, no managers, no hierarchy" 2018: Zappos theater ZAPPO's core values: - Deliver WOW through service - Embrace and drive change - Create fun and A little weirdness - Be adventurous, creative, and open-minded - Pursue Growth and learning - Build open and honest relationships withcommunication- Build a positive team and family communication- Do more with less- Be passionate and determined- Be humble Supply ChainDefinition: a supply chain is a sequence of organizations (their facilities, functions, and activities) that are involved in producing and delivering a product or service.It refers to all those companies that produce one single element of a final product. We have a bunch of organization and each of them produces an element of the final good, so all belong to the supply chain. every organization is a part of at least one supply chain.Talking about the corporate level strategies, you could have a more or less integrated supply chain.Supply chain managementTypes of flow along the supply chainThere are 3 flows that we can observe along the supply chain:1. Product/ service flow2. Information flow: sharing forecast and sales data, transmitting orders, tracking shipments3. Financial flows: it has to do with credit terms and payments.Example: Supply chain onthe bread Farm supplier row materials distribution of raw materials production of the final good distribution of point of sales point of sales Trends in supply chain management. 1. Greening the supply chain 2. Reevaluating outsourcing: already in place before the covid, but it has boosted the reevaluating the outsourcing 3. Integrating