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PART SIX
CHALLENGES TO THE EXISTING ORDER
CHAPTER 22
THE PALESTINIAN INTIFADA AND THE 1991 GULF WAR
The 1987 intifada and the 1991 Gulf War were momentous events for the entire region.
- The Palestinian inhabitants of the West Bank and Gaza Strip participated in a mass
uprising to bring an end to Israeli occupation and establish and independent Palestinian
state.
- A second internal regional crisis occurred in 1990 with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
Intifada
1982: Israeli society experienced a polarization that was reflected in the fragmentation of the
country’s political life: Labor vs Likud forced to govern together.
Likud-dominance in the 1980s governments adopted measures designed to isolate and
subjugate the Palestinian inhabitants.
The resistance among Palestinians tool the form of a sustained popular uprising that was both a
rejection of the Israeli occupation and an affirmation of the Palestinian people’s right to national
self-determination.
Palestinian uprising, or intifada, began in Gaza on DIC 9 ’87 following a road accident involving
an Israeli military vehicle that killed four Palestinians and injured several others.
At the beginning spontaneous rebellion fueled by the anger of the discontented young people
of the occupied territories.
Then broadened to include all strata of Palestinian society.
Objectives:
- Israeli stop building settlements and confiscating Arab lands and that it cancel the
special taxes and restrictions that applied only to Palestinians.
- Called upon Israel to recognize an independent Palestinian state under the leadership of
the PLO.
A new organizations formed as rivals of the Israeli UNL: Hamas that came into existence in
1988 ( Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). Call to action in Islamic terms.
The Israeli government made a determined effort to crush the uprising and this retaliation
affected all Palestinian in the Gaza Strip and West Bank and led Palestinian society to unit in
common opposition to the occupation.
But in 1992 the cooperation among all segments of Palestinian society that had sustained the
intifada started to evaporate.
The only outside power capable of persuading Israel to modify its policies and enter into
negotiations was the United States. However, the United States would not exercise its influence
in this matter until the PLO recognized the state of Israeli. BUT when Arafat did without
receiving any concession in return associate the PLO with Husayn’s Iraqi regime.
THE GULF CRISIS
On August 2 ’90 the armed forces of Iraq invaded Kuwait; six days later, the Iraqi government
announced that Kuwait had been annexed as the province of Iraq. international crisis US-
led Gulf War against Iraq.
Immediate effects:
- Devastation of Iraq
- Creation of a monumental refugee problem
- The emergence of the US as an uncontested superpower in the Middle East.
WHY:
- Iraq’s refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the border dividing the two state: when
British in 1923 defined the Iraq-Kuwait border, they gave Kuwait more territory in the
north than the Kuwait rulers traditionally controlled. (aim: restrict Iraq’s access to
Persian Gulf).
- Economic and strategic considerations: the most significant point of contention between
the two countries was oil production: Iraq accused Kuwait of violating some OPEC
agreements.
= invasion was a justifiable retaliation.
US response operation DESERT SHIELD was set to prevent the Saudi Arabia’s invasion OCT
1990.
US sought to persuade Arab countries outside the Gulf to support the operation. Egypt and
Syria agree. Jordan disagree.
When the aim operation had been achieved operation DESERT STORM: UN Security Council
passed a resolution setting JAN 15 1991 as the deadline for the complete withdrawal of Iraqi
Forces from Kuwait. The resolution authorized the use of all necessary means to enforce Iraq’s
pullout after JAN 15. = offensive campaign for the liberation of Kuwait. When the deadline
passed without the liberation air war against Iraq began.
The Iraqi leader decided to provoke Israel into entering the war, but the American
administration was able to convince the Israeli government not to react.
With the success of Operation Desert Storm, the American administration demonstrated its
supremacy.
CEASE-FIRE
On April 3 1991 after more than a month of negotiations the UN security Council adopted
Resolution 687 setting forth the term for a formal ceasefire in the Gulf War.
- It forced Iraq to renounce weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and medium to long-
range missiles
- The countries of the region agreed to host US bases, which served the US and UK air
forces to impose two no fly zones on Iraq, one in the north and one in the south of the
country. The northern one favoured the formation of a Kurdish entity almost
independent from Baghdad; the southern one did not prevent the repression of the
southern Shiite rebellion
- He avoided abolishing the economic sanctions imposed in August 1990, to make the
regime unpopular and to hinder its rearmament. Later the disastrous consequences of
the sanctions on the Iraqi population led to their slight easing through the introduction
of the Oil for Food program, which allowed Iraq to sell oil in exchange for basic
necessities
CHAPTER 23
PEACE
Oslo I secret face to face meetings between Palestinian and Israeli officials; it set the stage
for additional steps toward the normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbours:
- Full treaty of peace and mutual recognition between Israel and Jordan.
- Return of Arafat to Palestine and his assumption of authority over a small portion of the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
BUT contributed to the assassination of an Israeli prime minister by a Jewish Israeli citizen and
division in Israeli and Palestinian society.
The ROAD TO OSLO:
1) Madrid Conference of 1991 sponsored by the US and SU which opened in Madrid
on October 30 ’91. On the one hand, there was the objective of achieving peace
between Israel and Lebanon, Syria and Jordan; on the other hand, the aim was to
initiate dialogue between the Israeli and Palestinian authorities.
Sticking point:
Israeli policy Aimed at building colonies in the occupied territories with the
clear intention of annexing parts of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip =
President Bush constrains American loans to renounce the installation;
without the loans, Israel could not afford to finance its settlement policies
• The possible return to Israeli territory of Palestinians who had fled in previous
decades.
• Mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel.
• The status of Jerusalem.
In late summer 1993 Palestinian and Israeli delegates provided for a mutual recognition
between Israel and the PLO and laid the foundations for Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip.
Two agreement hammered out:
2) FIRST: mutual recognition in which Israel recognized the PLO as the legitimate
representative of the Palestinian people and the PLO unequivocally recognized
Israel’s right to exist in peace and security, renounced the use of terror and violence.
3) Oslo I or Declaration of Principles on Palestinian Self-Rule that outline a five year
program for interim Palestinian autonomy in the occupied territories.
Norwegian Prime Minister Holst liberated Oslo as a secret venue for negotiations; the
agreement was signed in Washington with Clinton’s mediation and a handshake
between Rabin and Arafat.
Meeting point recognition by Israel of the PLO as a Palestinian interlocutor and by
Arafat the right of Israel to the existence + birth of a Palestinian National Authority
representing the embryo of a government and a state.
Oslo effect: In the following months a number of factors played against the implementation of
the agreements:
- not all Israeli public opinion shared Rabin’s optimism and the settlements of colonies
stopped us.
- Several Palestinian groups, such as Hamas, did not accept the outcome of Oslo and this
led to an escalation of attacks on Israeli civilians.
- The deteriorating economic situation in the occupied territories for Palestinian.
- In 1995 a young Israeli extremist killed Rabin = setback for negotiations between Israel
and Palestine.
4) Oslo II: the Israeli government cedes to the Palestinians self-government over a
number of cities in the West Bank allowing the creation of the Palestinian National
Authority. A peace treaty was also established between Jordan and Israel.
5) Camp David: Towards the end of his second term, Clinton had attempted yet another
act of mediation between Israel, then under the leadership of Prime Minister Barak,
and Arafat. In July 2000, a tripartite declaration was signed at Camp David, which
appeared as the premise of a serious agreement; Israel undertook to withdraw from
most of the occupied territories, excluding Jerusalem. However, Arafat withdrew
from the agreement.
6) Wye River Memorandum: negotiated agreement between Israel (Netanyahu) and the
Palestinian Authority (Arafat) at the Wye River Maryland summit on 23 October
1998, with Clinton’s mediation; it aimed to resume the implementation of Oslo II.
7) Taba summit: the Israeli negotiating team presented a new map at the Taba summit
in Taba, Egypt, in January 2001. It was decided to eliminate "temporary Israeli
control" in some areas and the Palestinian side accepted it as a basis for future
negotiations. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak did not conduct further
negotiations at that time and the talks ended without an agreement.
Second intifada at the end of September 2000 a demonstration organised by the leader of
the Israeli right-wing party on the esplanade of the mosques in Jerusalem, a sacred place for
both Jews and Muslims, was considered by the latter as a desecration and was the spark that
gave rise to the second intifada that lasted until 2005.
The historical reasons were rather the slow build-up of tensions between 1993 and 2000, due
to the stalemate in the peace process, which suggested a failure of the Oslo agreements. The
tension would reach its peak in July 2000 with the failure of the Camp David summit.
CHAPTER 24
TURKEY, LEBANON AND IRAN
T Turkey has been able to make use of its strategic geopolitical position especially since the
2000s and is the result of a combination of regional transformations and internal political
changes. At a foreign level, especially the 2003 Iraq war and the disappearance of a major
regional player have opened up new areas of manoeuvre and opportunities in the Middle East
for Ankara. Internally, a new political formation, the Justice and Development Party AKP led by
Erdogan in November 2002, influenced the government. In the first decade of the 2000s the
government gave a more dynamic and assertive orientation to the country’s regional policy on
the basis of