Riassunto esame English I, prof. Rossi, libro consigliato The future of English, Greddol

The English language in the 21st century

This book is about the English language in the 21st century: who will speak it and for what purposes. It takes stock of the present unassailable position of English and asks whether it can change during the upcoming decades.

How did English reach its present position in the world?

• Technics of forecasting: Identify change and the patterns of language.
• Global trends impact: Identify and outline significant trends and the impact they're having on language and communication.
• Status implications for the English language: A better way to understand its role in the 21st century.
• Global “brand image” for Britain: The role of English.

English is widely regarded as the global language and it’s unlikely to be displaced as the world’s most important language, but the future is complex and not certain. Currently, 1 in 5 people speaks it competently/proficiently. English is the language of 1.5 billion people (which will probably increase to 3 billion in 2050), capitalism (international commerce and trade), cultural resources (the main language of books, newspapers, airports, air-traffic control, international business and academic conferences, science, technology, sport, pop music, and advertising), economy, technology, and culture. It is at the leading edge of technological development, economics and management, leading to new vocabularies, grammatical forms, and ways of speaking and writing. A major tool of expansion is the Internet, leading to ‘net English’.

Future trends

It’s contradictory! What is sure is that the number of people who speak English as a second language will exceed the number of native speakers, who will become minority stakeholders (their position is going to be challenged). On the one hand, there are tendencies towards increasing use of English, counterposed by others that lead to a reducing enthusiasm for the language. This is due to the growth of other important languages, such as Spanish and Chinese, which may, in the future, replace the hegemony of English.

English doesn’t unify all those who speak it anymore!

• Main factors of influence and shifts in the English language:
  • Shifting patterns of trade and new working practices
  • Globalization
  • Demographics
  • Historical
  • Political

As the number of people using English grows, second language speakers will be drawn towards the ‘inner circle – L1’ and foreign language speakers to the ‘outer circle – L2’. During this status shift, the English language will diversify, and other countries will emerge to compete with the older native-speaking countries in the English language-teaching industry and global market. The future will be a bilingual one, with fluent speakers of more than one language. There will be a social value shift regarding social equity and quality of life depending on the level of proficiency in English a person can reach.

English today – Chapter 1

Reasons for this language to have become global: Historical/Geographical – Britain's colonial expansion, slave trade, and invasions (the British Empire) established the pre-conditions for the global use of English (16th century), taking it from its birthplace to settlements around the world (and especially in North America). In this way, the language has grown up in contact with other languages and became a hybrid one, in constant, rapid evolution to meet communicative skills.

But English would probably have declined, had it not been for the rise of the USA as a world superpower and its growing role during the 20th century (powerful and industrialized, the world’s third most populous country). For the spread of English, the aftermath of WWII was decisive, as well as the American influence (it was involved in the reconstruction plan of Europe).

English today = joint outcome of Britain’s colonial expansion and the recent activity of the US. The advent of printing (1476), the industrial revolution (flowering of vocabulary), modernity (from poets to novels), spread of knowledge and technology (information exchange at a very low cost), trade (good exchanges), socio-cultural movement of people (to find employment possibilities) leading to migration, economic trade, and good exchanges with various countries in the world (east for the majority), leading edge for technology and innovation (industrial revolution).

Internal political employment: Institution of science, such as the Royal Society in Britain, scientific/economic articles, intellectual property produced in English. Practical factors include the ease of learning compared to some other languages, due to the alphabet derived from Latin, although vocabulary can be challenging as new words emerge every day. There was a need for a common, universal language for communication purposes.

Futurology – Chapter 2

What will the future of English be? It will be subjected to 3 types of change:

• Changes to the language itself (derived from contact with other languages) in: pronunciation, vocabulary, grammar, text types, and genres.
• Changes in status, which may acquire different meanings and patterns of usage among non-native speakers.
• Quantitative changes, such as in the number of speakers.

The dynamics of change are likely to be different within the three communities: L1, L2, and EFL.

How does a language change?

• Fashion in slang used among native speakers.
• Shift that occurs when a community or family abandons one language and starts to use another as a first language.
• When it is imposed from outside: by the government, market liberalization (economic power of the language).
• New technology plays an important role in the development of innovation in language: Internet.
• Elements of influence: social contact, fashion in clothing.
• Young people are the leaders of change.
• Social and geographical mobility (people moving from a country to another) leading to language contact (hybrid varieties).
• Demographic shifts.

Changes in the L1 circle cannot happen rapidly, and will depend mainly on demographic shifts (birth rate, migration). Populations in the English-speaking countries are fairly stable. The L2 circle will change more substantially over a generation or two (forecasting it is quite a complex process). The EFL community is potentially the most volatile: shifts here occur quickly – within a decade – as a result of developing countries or a change of public interest (demand for the Business English Certificate is a way to forecast it).

There’s a mathematical approach used to model such complex systems called the “chaos theory” (also used for weather forecasting), which can help forecast the future of English in several ways: analyzing the ‘behavior’ of that language and then making short-term predictions with some success, but long-term predictions are likely to go badly wrong. It analyzes the dynamics of the overall system as well as the local conditions.

Native speakers may feel the language belongs to them, but it will be those who speak English as a second or foreign language who will determine its future!