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Latin America: Trading Partners and the Need for Innovation
If you're a European country, your top trading partner is either Germany or France. However, if you're Latin American, your top trading partners are not neighbors but extra regional countries!
If you need to catch up with the rest of the world, you need capital: physical capital, human capital, and especially technology and innovation. You need to create things, technology patents, and this is not happening in the "back" countries. Most of the knowledge and innovation in the production chains are being produced by northern countries or by emerging countries in Africa and Asia, such as the 4 tigers and South Korea.
What makes Latin America a region? Some countries are anti-American, while others are not. If you look at anti-Americanism as the feature that brings together all Latin Americans, this is a mistake. This is not happening, and it never happened. Some are pro-American, others are not. So, there is no common share!
If we look at FH maps, again Latin America...
is a mix there are half democracy of hybrid regimes and there are some countries which are blue, but they are too small, let's mention them: Cuba of course not a democracy even though we know there are people who like the Cuban regime even recognizing it's not a democracy and then it's Nicaragua. Venezuela is yellow here because it was not yet an autocratic regime as it became later.
If we look at Europe where we're used to a continent in which every country is a democracy the same for northern America as well the US and Canada but if you have a look at Africa or Asia the world becomes multi color!
Let's talk about presidentialism, presidentialism actually brings Latin America together and together with the United States. US is the country that invented presidentialism, peoples of colors hadn't thought of this kind of regime before they invented it in order to substitute the King that they didn't like. Most countries in the world were so far monarchy or
In Latin America, many countries were getting rid of their monarchs and had to invent a new political regime. The United States served as an example for these American republics. One common feature they adopted from the United States is presidentialism, but it is not the defining feature of Latin America. Presidentialism is also found in other parts of the world.
Another feature found in Latin America is federalism, where supranational authorities are autonomous. Many countries in Latin America have a federal system, while others have hybrid cases or devolution. Italy, for example, has 20 regions, five of which have special powers and languages, but it is not considered a federal regime.
In Latin America, there are four federal countries. The United States of America started with 13 states.
communities that became states now they are 50 as many as stars in the flag so these states were brought together, and this is the name of the nation United States of America the region in which they were located.
What's the official name of Mexico, so far the official name is United States of Mexico this is the name you can see it in the constitution same for Brazil and Venezuela, which is now Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, but was United States of Venezuela.
So, two centuries ago there were four countries called United States in America United States of America of Mexico Brazil and Venezuela they were all taking after the United States.
Now let's talk about colonies they were discovered conquered and colonized by European nations and then they got independence through war or through peaceful succession as in the case of Brazil. Some of them developed afterwards some of them are lacking regards of human development indicators.
Human development is not just about the economy,
it's about health and education, life expectancy and education enrollment. So, if you bring together economy, education and health indicators you get what the United Nations did with the human development indicators there are four classes of countriesvery highly developed (dark blue), highly developed (lighter blue), medium developed (even lighter blue), low development (almost gray). Chile Argentina and nowadays also Uruguay have a level of human development which is similar. In Latin America again a lot of heterogeneity: Brazil is a 7 Angola is a 5, Mozambique is a 3, this how broad is the dispersion of human development indicators in the world and how Latin America is located in it. We have most countries at higher level than the rest but also much poorer countries most in the Central America, Bolivia, Paraguay and some in the Caribbean. This is related to conditions of living life conditions.
Then we have homicide rates measured in a proportion of 100,000 inhabitants per year. Most of
Europe is 1, which means that in Europe we have 1 homicide every 100,000 people per year. In the United States it is 5, which is extremely high for developed countries. In Colombia, we have 65. Right now, Colombia is improving the living conditions of its population while reducing terrorism, while Venezuela is worsening the living conditions of its population. Again, heterogeneity, we are talking about Latin America. Latin America is a very heterogeneous region and it's getting more and more heterogeneous. In many parts of the region, there are African populations, and in other parts, there are native populations. We have a map of the native population and we see that the darker areas are more native, and there are just four countries in the Americas in which Indigenous people make up half of the population: Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, and Guatemala. Again, here we have a matter of distance. In Europe, we have the Schengen agreements that made it possible for us to move and have highways, for example, but in Latin America, it is really difficult.
to move from a place to another due to the really bad conditions of streets, presence of rivers and forests and stuff. Quattro questioni riguardo la democrazia e le transizioni: - Le democrazie esistenti nascono e muoiono in maniera differente però tendono ad evolversi insieme. - Il processo di cambio di regime si produce nel tempo e nello spazio. - Ad ogni ondata segue una contro ondata (tipo democrazia contro autocrazia). - Le transizioni posso essere graduali o immediate e da questo dipende l'onda di democratizzazione. There is a link, a correlation between democracy and development? Some people think there is the more developed a country is, the more likely it is to be democracy. Poverty is connected to non-democracy; development is connected to democracy. This is quite often right but the correlation is not perfect. So, there is a physical relation that we should bear in mind, this correlation is meaningful and so if you're Democratic there is a high probability thatyou’re developed as well and vice versa. Democracies have been growing, but also the number of states today wehave more states than in the past. Democracy comes and goes, and this is normal, not necessarily good as we would like democracy to be forever, but we should be aware that is not always the case and it's good to be aware because then we realise that democracies are fragile, and democracy is not granted and needs to be watered everyday like plants otherwise it may dry. Most of today regimes are hybrid! Types of transition towards democracy: 1. Imposition: democracy has the ethic of defeat anyone who win theelection can rule, but democracy is also about losing power when you lose elections. (Alemania, Panama) 2. Concession: when you lose you must accept it in order to guarantee a safe transition. (Chile) 3. Pact: horizontal pact (Uruguay) 4. Reform: in order to deliver the democracy (Brasil) 5. Collapse: of an old regime! (Argentina) 6. Coup, golpe, revolution: in order toOpen up the way towards the democratization! (Portugal)
Outsiders and insiders are two kinds of politicians.
- Insider: someone who has a political career and comes from a party.
- Outsider: someone with the opposite features, somebody who is justified to politics with a new party today. Not a politician before but there are two different kinds of hybrids:
- Maverick: someone like Bolsonaro, who didn't exactly create a new party because in Brazilian parties, you can switch parties as you wish. He did have a public political career, but he was changing from party to party, so the Mavericks are someone who rambled around.
- Amateur: someone who hasn't got a political career and comes from, for example, being a sports celebrity but gets into politics within an established party.
Maverick and amateur are sometimes called outsiders, but they're not fully outsiders. Trump was not a full outsider; he was an amateur.
Spesso sono gli insider al sistema a minare le democrazie e spesso sfruttano
- Il caso del Brasile:
- Stati Uniti:
- Venezuela:
Secondo Sartori, solo i partiti che creano governi sono rilevanti. In Brasile, si è verificata un'incremento della frammentazione legislativa, diminuendo così il sostegno al Presidente. A livello presidenziale, i partiti che hanno proposto un candidato presidente sono diminuiti diventando stabili.
Gli Stati Uniti, pur essendo una potenza forte, sta declinando non perché sta diventando più piccolo, ma perché sta crescendo meno rispetto alle potenze emergenti. Quindi, la Cina sta recuperando terreno e anche l'India, così come gran parte dell'Asia del Pacifico. Se gli Stati Uniti sono una potenza in declino, come potrebbe il Brasile essere una potenza emergente se non ha fatto alcuna differenza rispetto agli Stati Uniti? Non è un emergente! Inoltre, c'è un grande problema di corruzione e omicidi (60.000 morti all'anno). Bolsonaro ha costruito una carriera politica sulla corruzione.
In Venezuela ci sono due leader diversi, Nicolas Maduro e Guaidò. Il Venezuela è un buon esportatore di una principale materia prima.
Ma questo ha portato a nessuna diversificazione ed è stato molto dannoso per lo sviluppo economico interno. Una risorsa non è ricchezza.
La primavera venezuelana potrebbe avere 5 possibili evoluzioni:
- Tunisia, transizione democratica
- Egitto, caduta del leader e sopravvivenza del regime
- Zimbabwe, sopravvivenza del regime con un collasso economico
- Libia, frammentazione territoriale
- Siria, guerra civile
Lo scenario ottimista per la ricostruzione vede il Venezuela diventare un protettorato cinese.
26.01.2021
È difficile avere organizzazioni regionali, vicine alla perfezione, come l'UE, infatti il resto del mondo è principalmente organizzato in nazioni (territorio, monopolio della violenza, organizzazione statale derivante dalla Pace di Westphalia). È irrealistico che il resto del mondo sia in grado di operare come l'UE inv