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BALANCE OF POWER
Balanced power relation between states, it is possible as
- PARITY, RESISTANCE to THREATS, system of collective RESISTANCE to the
woul-be HEGEMON
Problem : I do not feel secure, i arm myself. So my neighboud does not feel
secure, he arms himself more than me. So I arm myself more than him to
balance his power. And more and more. DO REALLY MORE AND MORE
WEAPONS MAKE STATES MORE SECURE? SECURITY DILEMMA
Explanation : it is not important the actual security, but the SECURITY
PERCEIVED (infact, paradoxically the more the states are armed the HIGHER is
the RISK)
- States do NOT balance the most POWERFUL state, but the most
THREATENING one (Threatening power defined by : Aggressive/non
aggressive intenctions, Offensive power, geography – my neighbour is
my enemy, the neighbour of my neighbour is my friend)
- Key DICHOTOMY : is balancing of power a voluntary (VOLUNTARISM-
importance of the AGENTS- people need to be active in order to
determine events and define the structure) or automatic (AUTOMATISM-
importance of the STRUCTURE- events decides for people) process?
Cririques : 1. the more the world is BALANCED, the more it is UNSTABLE, best
guarantee of PEACE is CLEAR ASYMMETRY (or consciousness of
reciprocal vulnerability)
2. with MASS POLITICS, LACK of the needed FLEXIBILITY to make
adjustments
HEGEMON STABILITY
UNBALANCED power relations, which is however considered LEGITIMATE
by the actors. The hegemon PAYS the “management costs” (eg.IOs) of
the system.
The more UNBALANCED the more STABLE the system is ( high power
concentration – enormous inqualities in distibustion of power- high
ordered system )
CONCENTRATION OF POWER creates HIERARCHY (it reduces anarchy)
- Problem : What when the hegemon DECLINES? [WW1 : England
but
German , collision!] [today : USA China , too late for collision,
China is already too strong]
-
VITIOUS CIRCLE OF HEGEMONY,
Phases of hegemony : EMERGENCE (after a war), STABILIZATION (not state
deems profitable to change the system, the law of the system are setted by the
hegemon) ,DECLINE (management costs of the system> benefits) and CRISIS
(challenger states produce war, a new hegemonic cicle begin)
Realism is characterized by a CICILIC UNDERSTANDING OF HISTORY:
“war not war war”,
PEACE does NOT exists at all
: power index
- HARD POWER (see above)
- a territorial and immaterial-
- SOFT POWER : creating IOs ( ability to
set the standards and the rules of the game), CULTURAL INFLUENCE – in
order to become SYMPATHETIC to other state- (investing in music, cinema
– Hollywood is the strongest American soft power instrument- , promoting
the language)
GRAMSCIAN notion of hegemony is based on SOFT POWER :
IDEOLOGICAL and CULTURAL dimension of hegemony : VALUES and SOCIO-ECONOMIC
models that other countries (unconsciously) consider as POIN OF REFERENCE
[American example in Italy]
DISTRIBUTION OF POWER
UNIPOLAR WORLD (end of cold war)
MULTIPOLAR WORLD : according MODERN REALISTS this scenario tends to be
more stable.
BIPOLAR WORLD : according NEOREALISTS this scenario is more stable. 1) Less
smaller risk of buck-
problems of identification/interpretation of threats (
passing). 2)Smaller risk to enter in to a conflict by mutal defense
(smaller risk of chain-ganging).
clauses/alliances
GREAT POWER STRATEGIES
DEFENSIVE REALISM( status quo politics) :
arming
- INTERNAL BALANCING, to increase the costs of a potential
invasion alliances
- EXTERNAL BALANCING, creating [strange alliance ongoing in the
middle east : Israel- Saudi Arabia to what extent can I trust my
alliances?]
OFFENSIVE REALISM (increase in ower) :
prestige politics
- WAR OF THREAT : show off, central node
- DIVIDI ET IMPERA : being the in a network of countries that
cannot communicate conquest
- IMPERIALISM : military/economic
in realism, states act according to bilateralism, the hegemon state is
IMP! :
the only one that can pursue its interest through multilateral agreements given
that he is the creator of the int order.
THUCIDIDES TRAP CASE
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
- Arenas when to MATERIALIZE POWER RELATIONS [in the UN relation
between the UNGA and the UNSC]
- Instument to CRYSTALLIZE NATIONAL POWER [ winner of WW2
develped the UN, P5-VETO POWER- in the UNSC (5 permanent
members+ 11 elected one). Given that all the other IOs are subordinated
to UN, and the UN is effectively ruled by the P5 all IOs are
SUBORDINATED to P5]
However : the P5 states are the TOP 5 in MILITARY EXPENDITURE of the
whole world. DE IURIS ET DE FACTO leader of the UNSC . Any change
affecting the P5 would be possible only when ANOTHER STATE would trump one
of them in military expenditure. [fail of the attempt to reform –from 5 to 10 PM-
the council in 2005][ But in 2005 R2P big threat to state sovereignity!]
- In IOs power in never given, it is only LENT (logic of CONSENSUS linked
to sovereignity)
- IOs rests on power : CHANGES in POWER generates CHANGES in
INSTITUTIONS [ eg : AIIB, Asia Infrastructure Investement Bank, born
as an alternative to the WORLD BANK-where American has veto power
new power : new institution]
NPT (non proliferation treaties) : another classical mechanism to
CRYSTALLIZE POWER
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF IDEOLOGIES?
They are NECESSARY TOOLS to make the PUBLIC engaged in the fight for
power as they offer : MORAL JUSTIFICATION and PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT
GEOPOLITICS
: the study of relationship between the
TERRITORY and the POLITICS
- Core : SEA POWERS (TALASSOCRACY) vs LAND POWER
(TELLUROCRACY)
USA,UK,JAPAN. Ideal type: fluid and FRANCE,GERMAN,
RUSSIA. Ideal type:
strong society- week state. Individual- strong, stable and
hierarchical state-
centric weak societ
have DOMINATED the world in the last 3 centuries!
Hint : 1) Is Trump moving US from a talassocracy to a tellurocracy? Are
the two WW2 just an attempt of the sea power to penetrate in to land?
- GEOPOLITICS OF EMOTIONS (MOISI) : how culture of FEAR (western
world), HOPE (asian world) and HUMILIATION (arab world) is re-shaping
the world. [is it really so far from reality?]
Disambiguation : Geopolitics also as the POLITICAL INTERPRETATION of the
role of an actor in a SPECIFIC TIME and SPACE (not a neutral explaination of
facts) WHAT ABOUT JUSTICE?
- NATIONAL INTEREST >> IMPARTIAL JUSTICE, but it can be
dissimulated ( Justice is just a weak ideological instrument in the hands of
the weak one)
- MORAL assessments are usefull ONLY when states have to decide goal
different than national interest but still compatible to it
Conclusion : the only moral principle that realists accept is the “ETHIC OF
RESPONSIBILITY” of the governments towards its citizens.
PRATICA
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
THE RULES OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
Institutional Framework of global politics
DEFINITION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE:
“set of REGULATORY MECHANISMS that do not originates from a single
political autonomy, but by the PROLIFERATION of NETWORKS in a more
and more INTERDEPENDENT WORLD”
BRIEF HISTORICAL VIEW :
The institution of “CLASSIC SOVEREIGNTY” incurred in a distinct BREAK
with the establishment of the UN:
- EXPROPRIATION of states RIGHT to use FORCE
- Adopting of the MAJORITY VOTING (no more “unanimity” as for LoN,
ruinous attempt)
- LEGAL SUPREMACY of the UN CHARTER to every other subsequent
treaty
MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF GOVERNANCE :
- WIDER system : MULTILAYERED and CONTINUUS process,
simultaneously affected by
national/regional/global influences
- LIMITED participation : only STAKEHOLDERS, mandate only over
PRECISELY DEFINED
AREAS/issues
- MULTILATERAL : produces GENERAL PRINCIPLES of CODUCT, requires
RECIPROCITY
- POLIARCHIC , rather than hierarchic
- HYBRID : it may entail the PRIVATIZATION of AUTHORITY
5 MEGATRENDS DUE TO GLOBAL GOVERNACE :
1. Emergin of the INTERMESTIC REALM :
Intense overlapping btw the national and international sphere! [ Eg. War
in SYRIA, domestic factions supported by a variety of international
players- Us, Russia, Turkey, Iran]
2. Increasing role of NON-STATE ACTORS:
- NGOs :
LOBBYG ACTIVITIES [Eg. international campaign leading to the
institution of the ICC, international campaign leading to the DEBT
CANCELLATION of the 3 World countries]
rd
PROVIDING FUNDS (to gov/ non-state actors)
PROVIDING SERVICES : sub-contracting to private actors is one of the
MAIN characteristics of NEO-LIBERAL states [LAW ENFORCEMENT]
-WTO :
Private actors also in the LAW ADJUDICATION field, significant role of the
PRIVATE ARBITRATION CHAMBERS in international commercial disputes
3. Emergin of PLURALISTIC GOVERNANCE : STATE+NON-STATE actors
IOs can be : Intergovernmental (public)
Privete
Hybrid (public+private)
4. New models to OBTAIN COMPLIACE : setting of TRANSNATIONAL
STANDARDS
- Shift from “COMMAND AND CONTROL” public authority [enforcement
through SANCTIONS] to a “MANAGERIAL APPROACH” [enforcement
based on ACCOUNTABILITY, RECOMANDATIONS,BEST PRACTICE and
NORMATIVE PERSUASION]
- If we do not accept standards we could incur in the big problem of
MARGINALIZATION
5. Development of a completely NEW CONCEPT OF AUTHORITY :
- TRADITIONAL model : INSTITUTIONAL PUBLIC AUTHORITY (delegated
by the institution)
- CONTEMPORARY MODEL : EXPERTISE [eg. Standard setting bodies]
PRINCIPLES [moral authority of
Religious leaders/NGOs] CAPACITY TO DELIVER [market
authority of TNCs]
IMP : often the DEMOCRATIC process is MIMED with the creation of COUNCIL OF
EXPERT/STAKEHOLDERS with the task of assessing the TRANSPARENCY,
OPENESS and
ACCOUNTABILITY of the system [above all STANDARD SETTING BODIES]
Fundamental for GATHERING NORMATIVE CONSENSUS, that’s the only
way to ensure COMPLIANCE [NO enforcement mechanisms]
GLOBAL POLITICS
POLITICS OF NORM CHANGE [Constructivist view]:
DISCOVER OF NEW issues/REINTERPRETATION of long-standing ones (eg.
Role of women in society) in order to REFORMULATE PUBLIC
UNDERSTANDING in order to make that issue : PROBLEMATIC, URGENT
but yet SOLVABLE
Three step process:
1. Production of KNEW KNOWLEDGE
2. External DISSEMINATION of knowledge
3. Acquiring the LEGITIMATE REPRESENTATION of the issue (legitimately
speak on behalf of the IC)
CLEVAGE OF GLOBAL POLITICS:
- TRADITIONAL : Left vs Right
- CONTEMPORARY : Globalists (pro-globalization) vs Localists (counter-
globalization)
[EU politics is a clear example]
4 MASTERFRAMES
1. GLOBALISTS can be:
- NEO-LIBERALS : individuals with GLOBAL HOMOGENEO