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II

Economic and Social Outlook for Russia,

2010–2012

Summary: With moderating global and Western European growth, uncertain oil prices and capital

fl ows, Russia is likely to grow by 4.2 percent in 2010, followed by 4.5 percent in 2011 and 3.5 percent in

2012 as domestic demand expands in line with gradual improvements in the labor and credit markets.

With such moderate growth prospects, unemployment situation is likely to get worse before it gets

better later in 2011.

Preliminary updates to the World Bank’s forecast suggest global GDP growth of about

3.5 percent this year, slowing to 3.2 percent in 2011 before recovering to around 3.6 percent

in 2012. Developing countries are expected to continue outperforming high-income countries

by a wide margin, with GDP growth of about 6.6 percent in 2010 and just less-than 6 percent

in 2011 before fi rming somewhat in 2012 (table 2.1). This compares favorably with the

2.5, 2.3 and 2.8 percent anticipated for high-income countries. Excluding China and India,

developing countries are projected to grow at 5.2, 4.5 and 4.8 percent, with average growth

above 4 percent in all regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa), and above 7 percent in East- and

South Asia. TABLE 2.1. The summary of the global outlook

2009 (actual) 2010 2011 2012

World ................................................................................... -2.1 3.5 3.2 3.6

High income countries ......................................................... -3.3 2.5 2.3 2.8

Developing countries ............................................................ 1.8 6.6 5.9 6.1

China .................................................................................... 8.7 9.5 8.5 8.2

Japan ................................................................................... -5.2 2.4 1.6 2.0

The United States ................................................................. -2.6 2.6 2.3 2.9

Euro area .............................................................................. -4.1 1.3 1.7 2.1

Russia .................................................................................. -7.9 4.2 4.5 3.5

Global Economic Prospects, The World Bank.

Source:

The global transition from today’s very loose macro policies to a more neutral stance

is a key challenge for all countries. Too abrupt a tightening could cut into the recovery—too

slow a response could see demand outstripping supply. The latter point is of special concern

given uncertainty over potential output—especially in high-income countries at the heart of

the fi

nancial crisis. If recent research suggesting that fi nancial crises tend to reduce potential

output by between 4 and 6 percent of GDP is correct, then the U.S. and European economies

could be close to their potential, with high structural unemployment. If so, an excessive de-

mand stimulus and low interest rates could be counterproductive, leaking out imports and

recreating earlier imbalances. For developing countries, many of them already at or closing

in on potential GDP, tightening may attract unwanted and potentially destabilizing capital

infl ows, as the difference between their interest rates and the low interest rates in high-income

countries widen. | 17

II. Economic and Social Outlook for Russia 2010–2011

Box 2.1. World Oil Market: Recent Developments and Prospects

Oil prices (WB average) have been relatively stable over the past 13 months,

Developments.

averaging around $77/bbl. Prices have been supported by strong demand in China and the U.S., and large

production restraint by OPEC producers. However, prices have been unable to rise sustainably higher

because of large stocks, substantial surplus capacity of oil production and refining, strong increases in

non-OPEC supply, and concerns about the outlook for the global economy. In October, prices rose above

$83/bbl, partly due to a weak dollar and tight distillate market. A strike at the large French Mediterranean

th , and spreading strikes closed most of France’s refineries, while

port of Fos-Lavera began September 27

protestors blocked oil product depots resulting in fuel shortages at many of France’s petrol stations. So

far the impact has been local and had limited impact on global crude and product markets, a reminder

that supply is plentiful. Crude stocks on-land remain high, especially in the U.S., while much of the large

floating storage earlier in the year has been brought ashore. Product inventories remain high on-land and

at-sea, particularly middle distillates, but a lengthy strike in France could pull product stocks lower.

The price of Urals crude has fallen dramatically relative to Brent from its recent highs because of the

French strikes. With millions of barrels blocked at the French Fos-Lavera terminal, refiners are limiting

their spot purchases, and Urals sellers have to find alternative buyers.

World oil demand growth has been strong this year, with OECD demand turning positive in 2Q 2009

and joining very strong gains in non-OECD countries, particularly China. Global oil demand is projected

to increase by 2.1 mb/d or 2.5% in 2010, topping the pre-crisis peak in 2007, and recording the largest

volumetric increase in more than 30 years with the sole exception of 2004. Meanwhile, non-OPEC sup-

plies have recorded very strong growth, with output up more than 1 mb/d in the first three quarters of

year. Russia’s oil production has risen by 0.2 mb/d in each of 2009 and 2010 due to new fields coming on

stream, such as Rosneft’s Vankor field in East Siberia, and TNK-BPs Uvat project in West Siberia

OPEC producers have largely maintained their production cuts in an effort to keep prices within a

$70–80/bbl range, which they deem acceptable. OPEC’s spare capacity is around 6 mb/d, with about

5 mb/d of the surplus is in the Gulf, and nearly two-thirds of the total in Saudi Arabia.

Oil prices are expected to remain relatively constant in real terms over the forecast period,

Prospects.

with the WB average currently projected at $76.4/bbl for 2010. Nominal prices are projected to drop to

$73.2/bbl, owing to a large drop in the WB MUV index. The market is expected to remain well supplied

going forward with large spare capacity in OPEC production and global refining. Oil demand is expected

to increase by 1.2 m/bd or 1.4% in 2011, with all of the growth in developing countries. Non-OPEC

supply is projected to grow by at least 0.5 mb/d, and OPEC NGLs are expected to increase by more than

0.6 mb/d. This leaves a very modest call on OPEC crude oil production, and thus the oil market balance

is not expected to change materially. This suggests that oil prices will continue trading around levels

of the past year. Downside risks would be slower growth in oil demand, a further climb in inventories,

and leakage of OPEC oil onto the market. Upside risks would include stronger demand in developing

countries—including emergency stock building in China when its new strategic petroleum tank capacity

comes online in the middle of next year—disappointing non-OPEC supply, further depreciation of the

dollar, and lack of an OPEC response should prices rise above the $70-80/bbl range.

Figure 2.1. World Bank oil price forecast; Average crude

(Brent, Dubai and WTI), simple average, $/bbl

World Bank Staff

Source:

18 | Russian Economic Report. № 23. November, 2010

With a slower-than-expected recovery in the fi

rst quarter of 2010 and remaining downside

risks to global economic recovery, we revised our real GDP projection to 4.2 percent in

2010, followed by a 4.5 percent growth in 2011, and 3.5 percent in 2012 (table 2.2). After a

disappointing fi

rst quarter in 2010, the growth momentum has been regained throughout Q2

and Q3, supported by recovery in household consumption and inventory restocking. In the

second half of 2010, the sources of growth are likely remain the same, while net exports are

expected to be a drag on growth, as import volumes pick up in line with economic recovery

(fi

gure 2.2). We expect that the pace of economic growth in 2011 and 2012 will be constrained,

and will depend on sustained gains in consumption and the pace of recovery in longer term

credit to the private sector, needed to facilitate growth in fi xed investment.

TABLE 2.2. Outlook for Russia, 2010–2012 2010 2011 2012

World growth, % ........................................................................................................................... 3.5 3.2 3.6

Oil prices, average, USD/bbl .......................................................................................................... 76.4 73.3 73.1

Russia

GDP growth, % .................................................... ..................................................................... 4.2 4.5 3.5

Consolidated government balance, % ....................................................................................... -4.4 -4.0 -3.1

Current account, USD bln. ......................................................................................................... 70 30 18

Capital account, USD bln. .......................................................................................................... -10 23 54

Global Economic Prospects (World growth and oil prices), and Russian Economic Report, The World Bank.

Source:

Given the outlook for oil prices and rapid growth in import volumes, we expect the

current account to deteriorate in the last quarter of 2010, and further in 2011 and 2012. The

capital account, by contrast, is expected to improve through 2011-2012, while capital fl

ows

are likely to remain volatile. If oil prices remain at their forecast levels, the surplus on the

external current account would amount to about USD 70 billion in 2010 (about 4.9 percent

of GDP) and would deteriorate to USD 30 billion in 2011 and further to USD 18 billion in

2012. Given the limited rollover capacity of the private sector in 2010, the capital account

is projected to have a defi

cit of about USD 10 billion. But refl

ecting an increase in non-debt

capital infl ows, lower debt repayments, and improved borrowing capacity of banks and

non-fi nancial corporations, we expect the capital account to improve to surpluses of USD 23

billion in 2011 and USD 54 billion in 2012. As the current account deteriorates in 2011 and

2012, the exchange rate will be increasingly driven by net capital fl ows, if oil prices remain

within the projected range.

An increase in fi

scal revenues due to higher oil prices is likely to be partly offset by new

pressures from additional spending on infrastructure and modernizing the economy. We

project the fi scal defi cit at 4.4 percent of GDP in 2010, 4.0 percent in 2011, and 3.1 percent in

2012, given the global oil price projections. With the reserve fund down to less than 3 percent

of GDP by the end of 2010 (fi gure 2.4) the expected budget defi cit in 2011 and 2012 will have

to be also fi nanced by domestic and (larger than planned) external borrowing. The downside

risks associated with highly volatile oil prices and global demand will remain.

Given the current trends, infl

ationary pressure could intensify toward year-end. But

tightening of the monetary conditions could contain infl

ation later in 2011 and 2012. CPI infl

a-

tion in 2010 is projected in the range of 8 to 9 percent, refl ecting the substantial monetization

of the economy and a one-off effect of rising food prices. The upside risks for infl ation will

remain in 2011, refl

ecting the lag between the current money supply growth and its impact

on prices, as well as possible monetization of the remaining fi

scal gap. Thus we do not expect

CPI infl ation to decline below 8 percent in 2011 or below 7 percent in 2012, unless the fi scal

stance is considerably tightened. | 19

II. Economic and Social Outlook for Russia 2010–2011


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DESCRIZIONE DISPENSA

Materiale didattico per il corso di Economia Politica del prof. Roberto Pasca di Magliano. Trattasi della sezione del rapporto della Banca Mondiale "Russian Economic Report 23" avente ad oggetto le politiche agro-alimentari della Russia , la siccità del 2010, il grain shock e il rialzo dei prezzi dei prodotti alimentari; l'esportazione dei prodotti agricoli; il ruolo della Russia nel mercato mondiale del petrolio; le prospettive di crescita future.


DETTAGLI
Corso di laurea: Corso di laurea in scienze politiche e relazioni internazionali (POMEZIA, ROMA)
SSD:
A.A.: 2011-2012

I contenuti di questa pagina costituiscono rielaborazioni personali del Publisher Atreyu di informazioni apprese con la frequenza delle lezioni di Economia politica e studio autonomo di eventuali libri di riferimento in preparazione dell'esame finale o della tesi. Non devono intendersi come materiale ufficiale dell'università La Sapienza - Uniroma1 o del prof Pasca di Magliano Roberto.

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