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Figure 3.2. Employment and unemployment changes during crisis (left) and recovery (right)

Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.

While the richer regions more open to foreign trade were hardest hit, the regional pattern

of recovery is not symmetrical. There is a strong negative correlation between the initial level

of unemployment and the increase in unemployment in the fi

rst year of the crisis (fi

gure 3.3,

left). But the pattern is not symmetrical. Regions, initially hit harder by the crisis are not nec-

essarily those where the unemployment rates are falling faster. Some of these regions are still

in deep recession, while others are growing faster.

Figure 3.3. Increase in unemployment compared with initial unemployment during crisis (left) and recovery (right)

Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.

The fi

nancial crisis had a strong impact on SMEs, but regions with sizable SME sectors

are also recovering faster. Small fi rms are particularly vulnerable due to their weaker fi nancial

structure, heavy dependence on credit, and limited recourse to fi

nancial markets. But faced

with sharply tighter budget constraints, the response of the surviving SMEs seems to have

been in cutting costs, adjusting production to lower demand, searching for additional sources

of liquidity, and postponing or even canceling new business ventures. So while regions with a

higher proportion of SME employment had higher unemployment, they are recovering faster

than the rest of the country.

Figure 3.4. SME employment and changes during (left) and the crisis (right)

Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.

22 | Russian Economic Report. № 23. November, 2010

Similarly, FDI fl

ows to Russia (especially some of the larger regions) were signifi cantly

affected during the crisis, but the recovery seems related to FDI and investment climate in

regions. During the crisis, FDI dropped everywhere. Regions with higher FDI in 2010 also

had higher industrial production. More developed regions that were more exposed to foreign

trade and foreign investments were most affected in terms of the loss of FDI. But some of

these same regions are only slowly recovering. Interestingly, some of the smaller regions with

show less unemployment

a larger share of foreign direct investment and better investment climate

in the recovery (fi gure 3.5).

Figure 3.5. Foreign direct investment in Russia’s crisis and recovery

Source: Rosstat; World Bank staff estimates.

In sum, regions that suffered most are the most developed, but they are not necessarily

leading the recovery. Preliminary regressions of regional unemployment (explained vari-

able) on a number of correlates (explanatory variables) suggests important roles for higher

investment rates, higher GDP, openness, and the share of non-tradables in facilitating the

labor market recovery. But diversity is huge during the recovery. One tentative result is that

regions with a larger share of SMEs, better investment climate, more FDI, and stronger fi nan-

cial sector presence tend to show a more robust recovery. The crisis may have provided an

opportunity for reform and an impetus to rethink and accelerate public sector, fi

nancial, and

diversifi

cation reforms at the regional levels. | 23

III. In Focus: Unemployment and Recovery Across Regions


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Materiale didattico per il corso di Economia Politica del prof. Roberto Pasca di Magliano. Trattasi della sezione del rapporto della Banca Mondiale "Russian Economic Report 23" avente ad oggetto l'analisi dell'andamento della disoccupazione in Russia durante la recente crisi economica internazionale.


DETTAGLI
Corso di laurea: Corso di laurea in scienze politiche e relazioni internazionali (POMEZIA, ROMA)
SSD:
A.A.: 2011-2012

I contenuti di questa pagina costituiscono rielaborazioni personali del Publisher Atreyu di informazioni apprese con la frequenza delle lezioni di Economia politica e studio autonomo di eventuali libri di riferimento in preparazione dell'esame finale o della tesi. Non devono intendersi come materiale ufficiale dell'università La Sapienza - Uniroma1 o del prof Pasca di Magliano Roberto.

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