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Labor market — a temporary decline in unemployment

With the ongoing output recovery and a seasonal increase in employment, unemploy-

ment fell from January to June 2010 and has since remained broadly stable, if elevated.

Unemployment in Russia fell from 9.2 percent in January 2010 to 6.6 percent (5.0 million

people) in September, based on the ILO defi

nition (table 1.3 and fi gure 1.8)), but it is likely

to increase with the onset of the winter and remain high in 2011. Moreover, many long-term

unemployed dropped out of the labor force. So, Russia’s labor market conditions remain dif-

fi cult, mimicked in the sharp drop in net migration to Russia from Central Asia.

Box 1. The Impact of the Crisis on New Firm Entry

Like many upper-middle and high income countries, Russia experienced a sharp drop in new

Between 2008 and 2009, new firm registrations dropped

firm registrations during the financial crisis.

37 percent. Even with this precipitous drop, new firm entry density – calculated as newly registered firms

as a percentage of the working age population, normalized by 1,000 – in Russia remained higher than

most upper-middle income countries.

According to an index of crisis turbulence calculated by Calderon and Didier (2009), the impact of the

crisis on the Russian economy was nontrivial – a value of –0.31 on a scale of –2(worst) to 2(best) – and

the drop in new firm registrations was broadly in line with the severity of the crisis (Box Figure 1). This

index of “financial turbulence” measures the degree to which a country has been affected by the crisis. It

is calculated as a principal component of three measures: (a) variation in the real effective exchange rate

in March 2009 (% year-on-year), (b) rate of change in the aggregate stock price index in March 2009 (%

year-on-year), and (c) change in the country credit rating from Institutional Investor (variation in March

2009 vis-а-vis March 2008). Higher values of the turbulence index indicate the country was less affected

by the crisis. It appears that this turbulence measure has a significant impact on new business registra-

tion across 95 countries in the sample, even while controlling for country fixed effects and economic and

financial development.

Box Figure 1. The crisis turbulence in Russia was worse than average but the impact on new

firms much more pronounced

Source: Klapper, L. and Love, I. “The impact of the financial crisis on new firm registration,”

World Bank’s Policy Research Working Paper No. 5444, 2010/20/12, World Bank. | 7

I. Recent Economic Developments

Figure 1.8. Unemployment (left panel) and labor force aggregates (right panel)

Source: Rosstat.

A more detailed look at the hiring and fi

ring of workers suggest that only a few sectors

resumed signifi

cant hiring. These data and the replacement ratio of the number of hired and

red workers in major sectors suggest that the economy is not absorbing enough labor to

make a sustained dent in the unemployment rate. Finance is the only sector in which hiring

rates now exceed the fi

ring rate, after a period of large job losses. Manufacturing, energy and

gas, transport, and communication are gradually improving, if still with fairly low replace-

ment ratios (fi

gure 1.9). Vacancy data also indicate that manufacturing is the only major sector

looking for qualifi

ed workers (fi

gure 1.10). And the coming winter season is bound to result

in seasonal increase in the overall unemployment.

Figure 1.9. Hiring and firing in the economy (left panel) and major sectors (right panel)

2 Replacement rate (hiring/firing) by selected sectors

1 май.09

дек.09

0 апр.10

авг.10

Source: Rosstat, WB staff calculations.

Figure 1.10. Vacancies in the economy (left panel) and by sectors (right panel)

400

350

thousands 300

250

200 09

08 10

09 10

09 09 10

09 10

09 dec.

dec. aug.

aug. okt. feb.

feb. apr.

apr. jun.

jun.

Source: Rosstat.

8 | Russian Economic Report. № 23. November, 2010

TABLE 1.3. Labor productivity, disposable income, wages, and unemployment, 2006–2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan – Sep Sep

a

GDP growth, percent, year on year .................................... 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.9 4.2 n/a

Total employment, million people ...................................... 68.8 70.5 70.9 69.4 69.7 71.1

Employment growth, percent, year on year ........................ 0.8 2.4 0.5 -2.1 0.3a -0.1

a

Labor productivity growth, percent, year on year .............. 7.3 6.0 4.7 -5.9 3.9 n/a

Real disposable income growth, percent, year on year ...... 13.5 12.1 1.9 1.9 4.8 1.5

Real wage growth, percent, year on year ........................... 13.3 17.2 11.5 -2.8 5.0 5.1

Average monthly wage, USD .............................................. 392.5 533.2 692.1 593 678.2 703.2

Unemployment (percent, ILO definition, e-o-p) ................. 6.9 6.1 7.8 8.2 6.6 6.6

Source: Rosstat.

a Data for the first half of 2010.

Balance of payments – improved, but then deteriorating due to a rapid

growth in imports

The external current account balance improved in the fi

rst half of this year due to higher

oil prices and sluggish imports, but deteriorated in the third quarter as imports picked up.

According to the preliminary estimates from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), the current

account surplus amounted to USD 60.9 billion in the fi

rst three quarters of 2010, up from only

USD 33.3 billion in the corresponding period of 2009, mainly because of higher-than-expected

oil and resource prices (fi

gures 1.11–1.12). But in July-September, import growth accelerated,

and the trade balance narrowed considerably despite relatively high oil prices. According to

preliminary estimates, the current amount surplus narrowed to only USD 8.7 billion in the

third quarter, compared with USD 33.5 billion and USD 18.7 billion in the fi

rst two (table 1.4).

The current account surplus is likely to narrow further in the last quarter of 2010, refl

ecting

further import growth supported by economic recovery.

TABLE 1.4. Balance of payments (USD billions), 2006–2010 a

2006 2007 2008 2009 H1-09 H1-10 Q3-2010

Current account balance ....................................... 94.7 77 103.7 49.4 17.9 52.2 8.7

Trade balance ...................................................... 139.3 130.9 155.4 111.6 43 86 28.5

Capital and financial account ................................ 3.3 84.8 -131.3 -43.49 -29.3 -2.3 -4.4

Errors and omissions .......................................... 9.5 -12.9 -11.3 -2.6 -4.9 -7.2 -1.6

Change in reserves (+ = increase) ........................... 107.5 148.9 -38.9 3.4 -16.3 42.7 2.7

a

Source: CBR Preliminary estimates.

With a lower current account surplus and downside risks for capital account, the balance

of payments position could deteriorate toward year-end. Net capital outfl

ows from Russia

fell during the fi rst nine months of 2010, allowing the balance of payments to strengthen and

the CBR to accumulate USD 51 billion in international reserves. According to the CBR pre-

liminary estimates, the capital account registered an outfl

ow of only USD 6.7 billion during

the fi rst nine months of 2010 compared to USD 56.3 billion in the corresponding period of

2009. But disaggregated data convey a more mixed picture: capital fl

ows remained volatile,

with net infl

ows into the banking sector but sizeable outfl ows from non-banking corporations

(table 1.5). With the uncertain global growth and capital fl

ows to emerging markets, Russia’s

balance of payments position could deteriorate further toward year-end, becoming more vul-

nerable to a new terms-of-trade shock due to a drop in oil prices. | 9

I. Recent Economic Developments


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DESCRIZIONE DISPENSA

Materiale didattico per il corso di Economia Politica del prof. Roberto Pasca di Magliano avente ad oggetto la situazione economica della Russia durante la recente crisi economica internazionale ed in particolare: la situazione della disoccupazione, l'impatto della crisi sulle nuove aziende, la bilancia dei pagamenti russa, il debito estero, la politica monetaria e la politica fiscale.


DETTAGLI
Corso di laurea: Corso di laurea in scienze politiche e relazioni internazionali (POMEZIA, ROMA)
SSD:
A.A.: 2011-2012

I contenuti di questa pagina costituiscono rielaborazioni personali del Publisher Atreyu di informazioni apprese con la frequenza delle lezioni di Economia politica e studio autonomo di eventuali libri di riferimento in preparazione dell'esame finale o della tesi. Non devono intendersi come materiale ufficiale dell'università La Sapienza - Uniroma1 o del prof Pasca di Magliano Roberto.

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