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Questa dispensa fa riferimento al corso di Laboratorio di Mobile Services e Multicanalità tenuto dal prof. Rovelli. Nel I capitolo si descrivono i principali fattori di cambiamento dell'ITC. Il II capitolo fornisce degli schemi interpretativi dei modelli di business della imprese in un contesto di convergenza.... Vedi di più

Esame di LABORATORIO DI MOBILE SERVICES E MULTICANALITA' docente Prof. M. Rovelli

Anteprima

ESTRATTO DOCUMENTO

Chapter 4

Impact assessment

Mobile, if allowed to develop as envisaged in this Manifesto, could add 0.5-1.0% to EU GDP annually to 2015 (2.8-

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6.1% in aggregate). This is worth around €340-750bn to the EU economy between 2010 and 2015 . The chart below

shows how this impact is distributed across the four Manifesto areas, with mobile’s ability to ‘increase internet

connectivity and drive productivity’ creating by far the largest incremental value.

Figure 9: Aggregate NPV of All Impacts (% of 2009 GDP)

Increase internet connectivity and

drive productivity High

Engage consumers and improve Case

efficiency Base

Case

Build a greener mobile planet Low

Case

Empower users and maintain

consumer trust 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Source: GSMA

To calculate these impacts we have calculated a Net Present Value (NPV) of the efficiency, productivity and

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incremental revenue impacts from 2010 to 2015 . Efficiency and productivity improvements are the largest

contributors:

 Efficiency cost savings: aggregate impact to 2015 of ~€170-300bn, which equates to 1.4-2.4% of 2009 EU

GDP

 Productivity improvements: aggregate impact to 2015 of ~€140-390bn, which equates to 1.2-3.2% of 2009 EU

GDP

 Incremental revenue: aggregate impact to 2015 of ~€30-60bn, which equates to 0.2-0.5% of 2009 GDP

It is important to note that these estimates exclude multiple impacts that cannot be sensibly estimated – such as the

impact of increased attainment in schools through mLearning support, or the impact of telemedicine on the health of the

population and therefore labour force productivity. The figure below summarises all the impacts identified, with those

we have been able to quantify highlighted in red. Taking this into account, even our high case can be seen as

conservative.

For detail about our methodology, please refer to the end of this Chapter. Please note that the total NPVs shown in the

tables in this Chapter have been rounded up to the nearest billion and therefore the line items may not sum precisely to

the totals stated.

73 Note: this is based on a high case estimate of €750bn over the next six years (equivalent to 6.1% of 2009 GDP, or ~1.0% per year, straight-lined).

Even our conservative low case gives a total incremental impact of 0.5% per year, or €340bn to 2015 (2.8% of 2009 GDP, or 0.5% per year). Note:

we use 2009 GDP as the benchmark given broad consensus on these figures (there is some variation between estimates for 2015 EU GDP depending

on bullishness regarding recovery).

74 Note: we have not used ‘in perpetuity’ values because these are by their very nature much larger, and because the Manifesto is focusing only on the

potential of mobile to 2015

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Figure 10: Summary of Impacts

Source: GSMA

Increase internet connectivity and drive productivity

“The internet now is like a fridge – and you can’t live without a fridge”

(Focus group respondent)

Broadband is increasingly seen as an essential utility. The key impacts are:

 Productivity – both in-home and out-of-home – adding an aggregate €127bn (or 1.0% of 2009 EU GDP) to the

EU economy from 2010-2015 in the low case, €225bn (or 1.8% of 2009 EU GDP) in the base case and €362bn

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(or 3.0% of 2009 EU GDP) in the high case (see the table below) .

 A more connected society.

 Increased informal learning and knowledge share for all citizens. One respondent observed: “Fast access to

information will change the way we learn – this will be beneficial to society”. Another mirrored this: “We’re

all more intelligent now – you’re being given more information all the time so your mind is widening”.

 Increased creativity through user generated content tools.

 Increased social participation for those who cannot leave the house. One respondent noted: “The internet

provides disabled people with a window to the world, and allows them to participate in education and work

from home”.

Here we have valued only the productivity impact and hence our results can be seen as conservative.

Figure 11: Productivity Impact 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Productivity Impact 2010-

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) 2015 (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Mobile broadband out-of-home usage drives productivity

 Wireless Intelligence (WI) forecasts that 3G penetration will reach 107% in €94bn €154bn €233bn

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2015. We forecast that 3G usage (6.9% in 2008 ) will grow at 1.5x the rate (0.8%) (1.3%) (1.9%)

75 Note: the productivity impact of mobile broadband in-home and out-of-home is €127bn in the low case and €362bn in the high case; this differs

from the total productivity impact of ~€140bn in the low case and ~€390bn in the high case because of the separate impact of privacy on 3G usage –

this is covered under the section on how mobile will “Empower Users and Maintain Consumer Trust”

76 Wireless Intelligence 03 Aug 2009

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of 3G penetration growth in the base case (1.4x in the low case and 1.6x in

the high case), due to a tipping point in application and interface

development as a result of the iPhone etc. The counterfactual is that 3G

usage will grow at the same rate as 3G penetration growth.

 Concept Economics examined the Australian 3G market and found that 3G

added 0.9% to GDP growth. Based on Australia’s 3G penetration rate of

60.4% in 2009, this translates into a 0.15% increase in GDP growth for every

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10% increase in broadband penetration . We have used this as our base case.

Mobile broadband facilitates 100% in-home broadband coverage, which drives productivity

 Broadband penetration is forecast to grow from 42% in 2007 to 100% in €33bn €72bn €130bn

2015 due to expansion of fixed networks and mobile ‘filling in’ coverage (0.3%) (0.6%) (1.1%)

gaps in rural areas. The counterfactual is that broadband penetration reaches

100% five years later, in 2020.

 In 2007, MICUS reported that broadband adds 0.71% to GDP growth. Based

on the 2007 broadband penetration figure of 42%, this implies that every

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10% of broadband penetration translates into 0.17% GDP growth

(assuming a straight-line correlation between GDP growth and broadband

penetration).

 This is a total broadband impact. To calculate a mobile impact we estimate

the total addressable market is 24% of EU households (using the proxy that

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24% are mobile-only households for cost or availability reasons). Of these,

we estimate take-up will be equivalent to the ratio of 3G usage to 3G

penetration in 2015 (i.e. even if it’s available, some people may not choose

to take up the service). Therefore, we calculate that mobile accounts for 12%

of the total broadband GDP impact from the MICUS study in our low case,

13% in the base case and 15% in the high case.

 As a sense check, if the MICUS estimate is compounded it equates to ~4.3%

over 6 years; our estimate for mobile compounded is ~1.4% over 6 years i.e.

mobile accounts for a third of total broadband productivity impacts on GDP

in 2015.

Total GDP impact €127bn €225bn €362bn

(1.0%) (1.8%) (3.0%)

Engage consumers and improve efficiency

Mobile delivery of eCommerce

Mobile broadband allows eCommerce on the move. This will not only boost growth in the existing eCommerce market

but will also facilitate the development of new business models. These developments will also likely enhance consumer

confidence in eCommerce. Across the EU, we estimate that this will generate incremental revenues of €41bn (0.3% of

2009 EU GDP) in the base case.

Figure 12: Incremental Revenue from mCommerce 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

mPayment systems drives growth in the eCommerce market

 The European eCommerce market is worth €207bn with 32% of all €25bn €41bn €62bn

consumers having engaged in such transactions. If current trends continue, (0.2%) (0.3%) (0.5%)

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eMarketer forecasts a 25% CAGR to 2015 .

 We assume that a 10% increase in 3G usage will increase the growth rate

of the eCommerce market by 0.5% (a small increment to the already high

growth of 25%). This is supported by findings that eCommerce usage

correlates to broadband access – 49% of dial-up users vs. 64% of

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broadband users buy products/ services online from home .

77 Next G Productivity Impact Study, Feb 2009, Concept Economics

78 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

79 Eurobarometer Special Survey: E-Communications Household Survey 2008, European Commission

80 European eCommerce to reach €323bn in 2011, eMarketer

81 E-Commerce in the US: Retail Trends, May 2005, eMarketer

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Mobile delivery of eLearning

The delivery of education materials and support via mobile has notable environmental, social and economic impacts.

On an environmental level, providing course materials digitally saves on printing and paper usage. On a social level,

mLearning can:

 Improve retention and results – a study by the UK Learning and Skills Council with 10,000 students in further

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education found an increase in retention of 8% and an improvement in achievement of 9.7% . Mobile made

learning more convenient for learners, helped teachers to provide differentiated activities to suit different

learning styles and ability levels, and therefore made the lessons more interesting for pupils.

 Enable teachers to maintain a supportive dialogue with learners who attend lessons infrequently due to truancy,

disability or illness.

 Encourage non-traditional learners and learners who have not succeeded in traditional education to engage in

learning and to improve their self-confidence and self-esteem.

 Provide cost effective training for those living remotely. One respondent noted: “[Mobile broadband] would

be important for providing education to those living in rural areas”.

 Encourage everyone to engage in learning. More than 35% of those doing vocational training use the internet

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for learning purposes . Even of those not enrolled in courses, 26% use the internet to seek information for

learning.

On an economic level, mobile can significantly reduce the cost of education and training provision through improved

efficiency in the use of teachers’ time. Indeed, blended learning (a combination of e-learning and classroom based

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learning) is 20% less expensive than equivalent face-to-face teaching . We estimate that mLearning can lead to a NPV

cost savings ranging between €7.3-13.6bn from 2010-2015 – equivalent to ~0.1% of 2009 EU GDP (see table below).

Figure 13: Cost Savings from mLearning 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

mLearning becomes widespread

 Education compensation expenditure (staff costs) is forecast to remain €7bn €10bn €14bn

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constant at 70% of current (non-capital, public & private) education (0.1 %) (0.1%) (0.1%)

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expenditure which itself remains constant at 92% of total education

expenditure.

 ‘Blended’ learning (i.e. a combination of face-to-face and eLearning) is

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estimated to create teaching cost savings of 20% per learner .

 We assume that mobile 3G usage drives mLearning usage; however we

conservatively estimate that only 10% of mobile 3G users will use

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mLearning – both in schools and adult colleges.

Mobile delivery of eHealth

On a social level, telemedicine can:

 Increase the quality of care for patients by monitoring symptoms in real time and remotely, so that treatment

can be adjusted accordingly. There are multiple interesting case studies such as:

AirStrip Technologies which offers a smartphone application that allows obstetricians to remotely

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view data on fetal and maternal heart rates for high risk pregnancies .

A miniature digestible chip that can be attached to conventional medication and will send a signal

• informing if the patient has consumed his or her medication, with the potential to send reminders

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via mobile .

 Reduce stress for carers and families of the chronically ill by ensuring patients are monitored. For example,

one respondent commented: “[Remote tracking] would give me more independence rather than looking after

my parents on a daily basis”.

 Automate the insurance process to save time and hassle for patients.

 Allow real-time tracking and reporting on the spread of epidemics, as well as providing timely advice on

medical care to be delivered quickly to an entire population during natural disasters. Estimates for economic

82 The Impact of Mobile Learning, 2009, LSN

83 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

84 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

85 Education at a Glance 2008, OECD

86 Education at a Glance 2008, OECD

87 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS. Note: eLearning can reduce teaching costs by 50% per learner whilst

blended learning can reduce teaching costs by 20% per learner

88 ICN forecast

89 Take Two Digital Pills and Call Me in the Morning, Aug 2009, WSJ

90 Take Two Digital Pills and Call Me in the Morning, Aug 2009, WSJ

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losses from swine flu, for instance, range between 0.5% and 1.5% of GDP in affected countries over the

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course of the pandemic .

 Provide advanced services in remote areas in a cost effective way through video conferencing and

telemedicine. This could also save €1.1bn a year across the EU – based on the results of the Gesundheits

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Card Europa (GCE), used by 200,000 Germans . This saving is integrated into the ePatient savings line in

the table below.

 Provide quick doctors appointments via video conference for professionals stuck at work. A respondent

noted: “Professional people will not have to waste time queuing to visit the doctor”.

On an economic level, telemedicine can reduce healthcare costs and improve efficiency in multiple ways – outlined in

the table below.

Figure 14: Cost Savings from mHealth 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Remote monitoring of patients can reduce visitation and medication costs

 Total (public and private) healthcare expenditure was €1,088bn in 2007 €37bn €46bn €55bn

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(8.8% of GDP) and is expected to remain constant as a % of GDP going (0.3%) (0.4%) (0.5%)

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forward, because it has been flat for the last 4 years .

 Based on a US case study, remote monitoring of patients with congestive

heart failure, diabetes and chronic pulmonary disease can potentially save

95

1.0% of total (public and private) healthcare expenditure.

 These three diseases represent the top three in terms of cost savings (due to

cost to treat and prevalence in the population) – thus we estimate these

three account for 75% of the total savings, to calculate a total saving of

€46.0bn.

Text messaging reminder schemes can reduce missed appointments and reduce costs

 Extrapolating from a UK case study, text messaging schemes to remind €9bn €11bn €13bn

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patients about appointments can save 0.3% of total (public and private) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%)

healthcare expenditure in the EU.

ePatient records can improve healthcare efficiency

97

 ePatient records could save 1.2% of total (public and private) healthcare €3bn €4bn €6bn

expenditure. (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.1%)

 Given that mobiles are personal devices that are always with us, we

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estimate mobile will account for 10% of total ePatient records use and an

equivalent % of the savings.

Secure messaging between healthcare providers can improve healthcare efficiency

99

 Micus estimates that secure messaging systems will save 0.6% of total €2bn €2bn €3bn

(public and private) healthcare expenditure. (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.0%)

100

 We estimate mobile will account for 5% of total secure messaging use

(given usage at the sites of accidents in particular).

Total NPV €50bn €64bn €78bn

(0.4%) (0.5%) (0.6%)

Mobile delivery of eGovernment

The impacts of mGovernment are social, environmental and economic. On a social level, mGovernment helps:

 Engage voters in the democratic process. Mobile is one of the best ways to engage with those demographics

101

that are least likely to vote currently – with penetration highest in younger age groups who have a lower

102

propensity to vote .

91 The Cost of Swine Flu, Jul 2009, Economist

92 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

93 Eurostat Statistical Database

94 ICN forecast

95 Take Two Digital Pills and Call Me in the Morning, WSJ. Note: based on West Wireless Health Institute study quoted in the WSJ citing savings of

$10.1bn for congestive heart failure, $6.1bn for diabetes and $4.9bn for chronic pulmonary disease; US healthcare spending was worth US$2.2 trillion

in 2007

96 European Mobile Industry Observatory 2008, GSMA; UK Treasury Budget 2007. Note: based on the experience of the NHS which could

potentially save between £240m and £370m from text messaging schemes in 2006 based on a total current and capital spending of £76.4bn in

2005/2006

97 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS. Note: based on the IZIT system developed in the Czech Republic

98 ICN forecast

99 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS. Note: based on the experience of the Danish Health Data Network

100 ICN forecast

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 Increase the speed, depth and frequency of citizen feedback on public services. This also has economic

implications given an estimated annual spend by governments on research into citizen feedback of

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approximately €2.3bn .

 Save citizens’ time. One respondent in our focus group noted: “Online administration or e-admin would limit

bureaucracy and save time”.

On an environmental level, mGovernment facilitates the development of paperless administration, reducing waste. On

an economic level, mGovernment can reduce administrative costs for businesses and consumers. This cost efficiency is

quantified below.

Figure 15: Cost Savings from mGovernment 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Reduction of administrative costs for businesses

 MICUS reports that government-related administrative costs for businesses €22bn €34bn €50bn

104

amount to c. 3% of GDP . According to the same study, online delivery (0.2%) (0.3%) (0.4%)

105

of government services can reduce the costs by 56% . Since this cost

saving is based on a case study of the Netherlands, we conservatively

assume that this is the high case (the estimates for the low case and base

case are reduced according to the percentages set out at the front of this

section).

 We assume uptake of mGovernment will be 10% of the usage of

106 107

eGovernment services – which was 68% in 2008 (increasing by 3.9%

CAGR to 2015), given that the majority of administrative work will still be

done from offices on fixed lines.

 Note that we forecast mobile broadband usage to be 59% by 2015 so the

idea that a significant proportion of government services could be

delivered via mobile seems reasonable.

Reduction of government-to-citizen administrative costs

 Total government expenditure is equivalent to 46.3% of GDP and is €19bn €29bn €42bn

108

expected to grow in-line with the economy . (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.3%)

 According to the MICUS study, automation of government back office

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tasks can help reduce government administrative costs by €176bn pa ,

110

equivalent to 3.1% of total government expenditure in 2007 .

 This number is for government to government interactions. The same study

estimates that the savings for government to citizen interactions is 25% of

111

this .

 We expect that mobile broadband will contribute 20% of this cost

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reduction by 2015 (as above, the majority of the benefit will be through

fixed line eGovernment provision)

Total NPV €41bn €64bn €91bn

(0.3%) (0.5%) (0.7%)

Build a greener planet

The impact of mobile with regards to M2M is predominantly environmental and economic – energy efficiency, and

related cost savings. Our focus group respondents were particularly interested in traffic-related initiatives, commenting:

101 Residential Survey, Aug 2003, Oftel

102 US Census Bureau

103 ICN estimates: scaling up the size of the UK market research industry which is worth £1.5bn (€1.75bn) the European market research industry is

estimated to be worth €12.0bn based on the UK’s proportion of GDP which is equivalent to 14.5%; we assume that government spend on market

research corresponds to its share of GDP which was 18.8% in 2008; this allows us to arrive at an estimate for government spend on consumer

feedback equivalent to €2.3bn

104 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

105 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

106 Eurostat Statistical Database

107 Eurostat Statistical Database. Note: based on extrapolation of the average growth rate in 2007 and 2008

108 Eurostat Statistical Database

109 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

110 Eurostat Statistical Database

111 The Impact of Broadband on Growth and Productivity, 2008, MICUS

112 ICN forecast

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 “Paying motorway tolls can slow traffic down and cause jams so why not allow payments to be made

automatically via mobile broadband as you approach?”

 “If there were systems that calculated the most efficient routes there would be less pollution, less stress and it

would be safer”

Our respondents were also fascinated by the applications of M2M in the home. For example mobile could:

 Allow consumers to control daily home routines remotely – such as turning on the heating, checking the best

before dates on the items in the fridge or starting the washing machine. This was a favourite among

respondents with comments such as:

“You could programme the washing machine before getting home, switch the lights on and off,

• and turn on the air conditioning in the summer”

“I could switch the heating on before I come home which would be perfect, or if I leave the house

• in a hurry I could switch things off”

 Improve home security by allowing remote tracking of security cameras or alarms

 Allow remote checking of cars. One respondent noted: “I would be interested in monitoring and controlling

my car – if a weather report told me it was going to be cold the next day, before I got in my car in the morning,

I could defrost the windscreen, check the oil levels and I could do it through the web”

 Provide real time energy information (accessed from anywhere) that allows consumers to participate in their

home energy management. For example, one respondent noted: “[Mobile broadband] could measure the

energy I use, and then propose something to tell me how to use less”.

The environmental impact of the “green” mobile technology areas is substantial. The reduction of carbon emissions in

2020 is outlined here, and the energy saving impact in economic terms is calculated in the table below:

113

 Smart grids can reduce carbon emissions by 43.1 Megatonnes of CO Emissions (MtCO ) a year

2 2e

2e114

 Smart logistics can reduce carbon emissions by 35.2 MtCO a year

2e115

 Teleworking can reduce carbon emissions by 22.1 MtCO a year

2e116

 Smart cities can reduce carbon emissions by 10.5 MtCO a year 117

 Smart buildings can reduce carbon emissions by 6.5 MtCO a year

2e 2e118

 Smart manufacturing can reduce carbon emissions by 1.9 MtCO a year

The cost savings associated with each area of energy efficiency are outlined in the table below. It is important to note

that these are predominantly derived from the conservative Carbon Connections report which only covers 13 mobile-

specific opportunities; hence it is several times lower than the total ICT impact estimated by the Smart 2020 report

produced by the Climate Group in 2008.

It is also important to note that these estimates exclude secondary economic impacts, beyond energy savings. For

example, the roll out of smart grids will stimulate a new market for smart consumer appliances. Hence our figures can

be seen as highly conservative.

Figure 16: Cost Savings from Reduction of Energy Consumption 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Dematerialisation/ teleworking

 Dematerialisation in the form of mobile telepresence, virtual office and €19bn €24bn €28bn

mobile delivery notifications for eCommerce is forecast to yield energy (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.2%)

119

savings of €7.7bn in 2015. The aggregate NPV to 2015 is stated in the

columns on the right.

Smart Grids

 Smart grids in the form of energy network monitoring and smart metering is €15bn €19bn €23bn

120

forecast to yield energy savings of €6.2bn in 2015. (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.2%)

Smart Logistics

 Smart logistics in the form of centralised and decentralised tracking, loading €18bn €22bn €27bn

optimisation, onboard telematics and remote supply control is forecast to (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.2%)

113 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: 2020 figures; no figures are available for 2015

114 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: 2020 figures; no figures are available for 2015

115 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: 2020 figures; no figures are available for 2015

116 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: 2020 figures; no figures are available for 2015

117 Smart 2020, 2008, The Climate Group. Note: 2015 figures as estimated by ICN; based on carbon emissions of 501 MtCO in 2002, carbon

2

abatement potential of c. 5.7%, a growth in building emissions of 2.3% a year and a technological adoption rate of 5.0% a year

118 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: 2020 figures; no figures are available for 2015

119 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: based on straight-line interpolation of expected energy cost savings of €14.1bn in 2020

120 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: based on straight-line interpolation of expected energy cost savings of €11.4bn in 2020

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121

yield energy savings of €7.2bn in 2015.

Smart Cities

 Smart cities in the form of urban traffic management systems and utilities €5bn €6bn €8bn

122

monitoring systems are forecast to yield energy savings of €2.0bn in 2015. (0.0%) (0.1%) (0.1%)

Smart Manufacturing

 Smart manufacturing can increase manufacturing process efficiency, support €1bn €1bn €2bn

predictive maintenance and optimise order fulfilment. This can lead to (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.0%)

123

energy savings of €0.4bn in 2015.

Smart Buildings

 Total carbon emissions from global energy usage by buildings were 8,340 €1bn €1bn €1bn

124

MtCO in 2002 . (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.0%)

2 125

 Based on a growth rate of global building energy use of 2.3% , we estimate

that energy usage by buildings will result in the emission of 11,209 MtCO 2

in 2015. The European figure for emissions is calculated using the European

126

share of carbon emissions – 14.9%

127

 The Smart 2020 report forecasts that smart buildings can create a 5.7%

reduction in energy usage based on the contributions of Buildings

Management Systems, Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Systems

and Lighting Automation Systems. To be conservative we estimate that only

5% of buildings will have be fitted with smart technology each year based on

the report’s observation that residential buildings take roughly 20-25 years to

adopt new technology whilst commercial buildings take roughly 15 years.

Therefore smart buildings are forecast to enable a reduction of 38.7 MtCO 2

of carbon emissions in Europe in 2015. 128

 We divided carbon emissions by the cost of carbon emissions - €20 -

allowing us to arrive at a figure for energy savings

Total NPV €59bn €73bn €88bn

(0.5%) (0.6%) (0.7%)

Total NPV + a multiplier of 20% (to account for mobile-based energy saving €70bn €88bn €106bn

129

opportunities not covered in the key source document ) (0.6%) (0.7%) (0.9%)

The industry will also work to reduce its carbon footprint, particularly through network optimisation (e.g. more efficient

base stations amplifiers, standby power management etc), handset recycling, and standardisation and efficiency

initiatives for chargers

Empower users and maintain consumer trust

The impact of security and privacy tools on consumer trust and on business resilience to attack is somewhat hard to

quantify. Below we have estimated the impact of increased mobile broadband usage (and therefore productivity)

resulting from increased consumer confidence, and the cost savings resulting from reduced malware attacks.

Figure 17: Increased Usage Impact of Increased Consumer Confidence 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Impact 2010-2015 (as % of

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Security and privacy tools will increase usage, driving incremental productivity

 Wireless Intelligence (WI) forecasts that 3G penetration will reach 107% in €14bn €20bn €26bn

2015. With the right security and privacy tools in place, we forecast a 5% (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.2%)

increment to our forecast growth rate for mobile broadband.

 As we have shown, GDP increases by 0.15% for every 10% increase in

130

broadband penetration . From this we can calculate the incremental impact

on GDP of privacy and security tools.

121 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: based on straight-line interpolation of expected energy cost savings of €13.2bn in 2020

122 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: based on straight-line interpolation of expected energy cost savings of €3.7bn in 2020

123 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture. Note: based on straight-line interpolation of expected energy cost savings of €832.2m in 2020

124 Smart 2020, 2008, The Climate Group. Note: MtCO refers to mega tonnes of CO emissions

2 2

125 Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth - The Energy Productivity Opportunity, May 2007, McKinsey

126 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, 2009. World Resource Institute

127 Smart 2020, 2008, The Climate Group

128 Smart 2020, 2008, The Climate Group

129 Carbon Connections, Jul 2009: Accenture

130 Next G Productivity Impact Study, Feb 2009, Concept Economics

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Figure 18: Cost Savings from Containing Malware Attacks 2010-2015 (% of 2009 GDP)

Evidence NPV Cost Savings 2010-2015

(refers to Base Case unless otherwise stated) (as % of 2009 EU GDP)

Low Base High

Containing the costs and spread of mobile malware

131

 Europe accounts for approximately 25% of total malware viruses and €6bn €8bn €10bn

sustained ~€2.3bn in corporate malware costs in 2006 (global costs were (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%)

132

€9.1bn in 2006 and we assume that the costs are equally spread between

viruses). Consumer-related malware costs are reported to be the same

133

again - giving a total European cost of ~€4.6bn.

 To calculate a total cost for mobile viruses in 2015, we need number of

viruses*attacks per virus*cost per attack. 134

 Mobile represented just 0.1% of total viruses in 2005 (226 viruses) but is

135

forecast to grow exponentially to 2015 (140,000 viruses) driven by the

prevalence of smart phones and mobile broadband usage.

 The number of attacks per virus is also growing due to increased

136

connectivity and communications. Attacks are growing at c. 170% (from

c. 362,000 in 2006 to over 2.6m in 2008). We use this rate to estimate 2015

attacks.

 We forecast that the cost per attack will increase at 10% of the growth rate

of malware viruses; as the number of viruses increases we expect that the

average cost of a virus decreases due to the involvement of amateur

developers.

 Conservatively, we estimate that tools would prevent 25% of all attacks,

leading to the numbers in this table.

Methodology

High, base and low case

In all base case calculations we have generated our own assumptions with reference to published figures from the

available literature. Key points to note are: 137

1. Where the report covers only part of the total market impact , we apply a multiplier to calculate the total

market impact

2. Where exchange rates are required, we use: USD/ EUR = 0.7016 and GBP/ EUR = 1.1654

3. Where figures are only available for world markets, we approximate the size of the European market by

multiplying the world market size by Europe’s share of world GDP (~21.3%)

4. Where we believe the estimates to be bullish, we use the published figures as the high case and scale the data

138

downward for the low case and base case . Otherwise, we use the published figures as the base case and flex

all relevant, mutually exclusive assumptions by 20% up or down for the high and low cases respectively

Our counterfactual is always that there will be some growth in the use of mobile irrespective of the Manifesto (and

policy triggers), and that this is already baked into the baseline GDP figures. If all of the suggested policies are

implemented, this will accelerate and embed the use of mobile in each Manifesto area.

Economic impacts

To calculate each economic impact we have used one of the following approaches:

1. Efficiency cost savings: For areas where we had access to case study data which provided the impact as a cost

saving, or efficiency gain, we have calculated a gain in economic value (as producers’ surplus, which, if competed

away, is likely to be enjoyed as consumer surplus). We assume that all cost savings are net of implementation costs.

131 Symantec Global Internet Security Threat Report 2008, Symantec

132 Financial Aspects of Network Security 2008, International Telecommunications Union

133 ICN estimates

134 Time to Prepare for Mobile Malware, Jun 2008, Wireless Week. Note: as reported by F-Secure till Mar 2008, there were 4001 mobile malware

attacks and 640,000 total malware attacks

135 2006: Year of the Mobile Malware, Dec 2005, CNET.com. Note: based on the number of mobile malware viruses in 2005 and 2006; this growth

rate is extrapolated forward based on a decline in the annual growth rate of 20%

136 Worldwide Malware Signature Counter, May 2009, Triumfant

137 Note: for example, Vodafone’s Carbon Connections report only considers the impact of 13 specific mobile energy saving technologies. We

therefore apply a multiplier of 1.2x to represent the full opportunity

138 Note: for example, cost savings of governmental related for businesses from the use of broadband is 56% as stated in the MICUS study is used as

the high case in calculating our impact figures

Legal information 27

139

We apply a social discount rate of 3% (based on the Stern Review ) in all cases to ascertain the NPV. The NPV is

based on 2010 to 2015; clearly the benefits in perpetuity would be much larger. For each cost saving, we assume

that the effect begins in 2010 and is straight lined to the stated total impact (from the case studies) in 2015. This

NPV is represented as a % of 2009 EU GDP.

2. Productivity improvements: For areas where we had access to case study data which provided the impact as a

percentage of GDP, or a productivity gain, we have calculated a gain in economic value based on implementation

140

of the Manifesto until 2015. We apply a social discount rate of 3% (based on the Stern Review ) to ascertain the

net present value (NPV). The NPV is based on 2010 to 2015; clearly the benefits in perpetuity would be much

larger. This NPV is represented as a % of 2009 EU GDP.

3. Incremental revenue: For areas where the case study data provided impact as revenue growth we have calculated

the NPV of aggregate incremental revenue from 2010 to 2015. We apply a commercial discount rate of 11% (based

141

on the US CBO ) in all cases to ascertain the NPV. The incremental revenue as a result of implementing the

Manifesto from 2010 to 2015 is based on the difference in revenue between the counterfactual and the scenario

cases. This NPV is represented as a % of 2009 EU GDP. Note that incremental revenue is not equal to economic

value because there are many indeterminable variables (e.g. prices rising because of falling competition – thus

destroying rather than creating value for consumers).

For reference we define productivity and efficiency in the following way:

Productivity – creating more output using the same resources i.e. increasing margins

• Efficiency – creating the same output with less resources i.e. cost savings

Social & environmental impacts

For each Manifesto point we also highlight the social and environmental impacts, with reference to case study data, and

comments from focus groups carried out in Poland and Spain as part of this project.

139 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Oct 2006, Office of Climate Change, UK

140 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Oct 2006, Office of Climate Change, UK

141 US Congressional Budget Office

Legal information 28

Chapter 5

Policy actions

Summary

To achieve this Manifesto, and create the positive impacts identified, the industry needs:

 More spectrum – develop a harmonised roadmap for release

 Roll-out support – remove barriers to eco-efficient coverage expansion

 Demand stimulation – be pro-mobile in public services, utilities and infrastructure

 Consumer education – promote user responsibility for online data and security

 Network management – continued flexibility to preserve choice and quality of service

More spectrum – develop a harmonised roadmap for release

The EC should accelerate the harmonised deployment of available spectrum (including the 790-862MHz band)

across all member states to facilitate a smooth transition to next generation mobile, universality and competition.

Given Europe’s strength and opportunities in mobile, there is political and economic urgency behind the accelerated

deployment of available spectrum. As stated by Commissioner Reding:

"The incremental value of using the digital dividend spectrum for wireless broadband across the EU is

estimated to be between €150 – €200 billion. The digital dividend could allow Europe to extend its leadership

in electronic communications services, creating growth and jobs, increasing productivity and giving greater

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access to broadband services for all Europeans."

Ultimately decisions on spectrum are made at a national level, however, the economies of scale generated by

introducing harmonised services means that centralised coordination would generate significant benefits for all

European markets. Currently countries including Italy, Belgium and Portugal are lagging behind in the digital dividend

debate. Getting these countries back on track for full harmonisation has multiple benefits. Making the 790-862 MHz

band available on a harmonised basis both in terms of timing and technicals will act as an economic stimulus. It will

create economies of scale allowing the delivery of mobile broadband services to rural Europe as cheaply as possible,

and bridging the digital divide.

Specifically the EC should:

 Create harmonised technical conditions for use of the 790-862MHz band – specifically through co-ordination

of activities within Europe (e.g. technical implementation) and, on the borders of Europe, with surrounding

countries (e.g. promotion of harmonised usage)

 Ensure harmonisation of deployment in Europe within appropriate timescales

 Focus on making the spectrum available on a technically harmonised basis and at the lowest possible cost to

make it commercially attractive for mobile operators to provide mobile broadband to rural areas. Operators

want this band to improve their rural coverage in a cost-efficient manner because geographical coverage is a

selling argument when competing for subscribers in the end user markets

The EC should review spectrum usage and future requirements of mobile and non-mobile applications, working with

the ITU where appropriate, covering availability, technology choices and timelines. National regulatory authorities

should put in place mechanisms to incentivise efficient usage.

Spectrum is a valuable resource and it is important to ensure that it is being used efficiently, both now and in the future.

The development of a roadmap, in collaboration with mobile and other parties, would specifically involve:

 Assessing overall allocations within Europe

 Assessing the value of European harmonization, and then the incremental value (e.g. economies of scale) of

harmonization beyond R1

 Reviewing the release of a second digital dividend band (694+ MHz)

 Reviewing additional future spectrum needs of mobile

142 GSMA Response, Radio Spectrum Policy Group Opinion of Digital Dividend, 30 Jun 2009, GSMA

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 Calculating the economic impact for the EU of different spectrum usage scenarios to ensure an appropriate

balance is struck

In terms of incentivising efficient usage, a single pan-European solution may not be appropriate. Instead national

solutions should combine appropriate mechanisms, which might include:

 Liberalisation of spectrum (i.e. allow a commercially based decision regarding which technology to implement

in which band such as GSM, UMTS, HSPA and LTE etc; however liberalisation may create problems for

harmonisation if it is too generic)

 Trading

 Refarming funds (using public money or funds from AIP whilst ensuring the latter does not artificially penalise

incumbent users who are highly efficient)

 Encouraging sharing

 Incentivising innovation

Roll-out support – remove barriers to eco-efficient coverage expansion

The EC should encourage member state governments to review and streamline country and town planning

procedures to facilitate faster and wider roll-out of mobile broadband. Frameworks should also be put in place at a

national level for specific exemptions, and/or public-private investment, for eco-efficient towers and masts.

Fragmented national planning policies and requirements for multiple authorisations create significant delays and

143

uncertainties in mobile network deployments, as well as increasing the costs of roll-out . Governments should review

these to ensure consistent good practice, and address community concerns through education and other means. The

review should weigh the benefits of prohibiting towers and masts in ‘Right of Way’ areas against the increased costs

(and decreased breadth therefore) of roll-out if these areas are not used.

Specific exemptions for eco-efficient towers and masts would also have a significant impact. Base stations can account

144

for up to 90% of a mobile network’s total energy consumption . Energy efficiency can be improved through multiple

techniques including the use of renewables. Solar-powered base stations, for example, can reduce site energy

145

consumption by up to 30% and would significantly reduce mobile’s carbon footprint. European operators are already

conducting trials to roll out solar-powered base stations. Mobile equipment manufacturers have also committed

themselves to conducting parallel R&D.

Public and private investment could also be considered for the roll-out of energy efficient base stations. India’s

Department of Telecoms for example recently announced a scheme to utilise part of its USO fund to subsidise the

146

installation of mobile towers that run on renewable sources of energy such as wind or solar . To supplement public

subsidies, the EC and national governments can also play a role in encouraging private investments in renewables – in

particular through the creation of favourable frameworks and regulatory environments.

The EC should ensure that policies for electromagnetic fields are consistent with World Health Organization

recommendations.

There are some community concerns about the siting of cell sites related to exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) –

147

although this is not among EU citizens’ top ten environmental worries . Typical exposure from base stations however

is lower than European and international exposure recommendations. Exposure is in the 0.002%-2% range which is

148

lower than, or at least comparable to, RF exposure from radio or television broadcast transmitters . The World Health

Organization has concluded that: ‘considering the very low exposure levels and research results collected to date, there

is no convincing scientific evidence that the weak RF signals from base stations and wireless networks cause adverse

149

health effects.

143 Building Mobile Networks: European Mobile Operator Responses to Public Concerns, Nov 2007, GSMA. Note: GSMA Europe is working on an

update to the planning section, including delays

144 World’s Most Energy Efficient Base Station Wins Best Network Technology Advance at GSMA Global Mobile Awards 2009, Nokia Siemens

Networks

145 World’s Most Energy Efficient Base Station Wins Best Network Technology Advance at GSMA Global Mobile Awards 2009, Nokia Siemens

Networks

146 USO Funds For Renewable Energy-Powered Cell Towers, Jul 2009, The Hindu Business Line

147 Eurobarometer Special Survey: Electromagnetic Fields, 2007, European Commission

148 Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health, May 2006, WHO

149 Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health, May 2006, WHO

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While most countries of the European Union follow the European Council recommendation of 1998, in some, policies

150

have been adopted that impose lower limits for exposure to radio signals . These policies are not based on scientific

evidence of established health risks; rather they are a political response to public concern.

One consequence of EMF restrictions is that it may act as a barrier to site sharing (which is elaborated below). For

example, it may be virtually impossible for antennas to share rooftops; this has been reported for Switzerland where the

151

limits are 10 times more restrictive than the European Council recommendation .

We request that the EC continue to support science-based EMF exposure limits and that it encourages member states to

review policies to remove non-scientific restrictions. This is in line with the European Parliament vote of April 2009

152

calling for continued review of EMF recommendations and siting policies determined by scientific criteria .

The EC should encourage commercially-based infrastructure sharing, where it is technically feasible, to promote

energy and cost efficiency.

Infrastructure sharing may be passive (for example, shared masts) or active (for example, shared transmission

153

equipment). All European operators share infrastructure for cell sites . Network sharing can be more energy and cost

154

efficient than individual cell sites, especially where operators jointly agree to deploy new networks . A GSM Base

Station 2/2/2, for example, requires 600-1800W of power whereas a station with double the capacity requires just 300-

155

500W more power (900-2300W) . It may be more difficult for existing networks where deployment plans differ and

156

where masts must be upgraded to support additional antennas.

We request that the EC ensure that infrastructure sharing is encouraged on a commercial basis where it is technically

feasible and consistent with competition rules.

Demand stimulation – be pro-mobile in public services, utilities and infrastructure

The EC should set targets for getting government services online across member states and ensure that all (existing

and new) eGovernment services are mobile enabled.

The mobility premium in service provision is powerful – and can hugely increase productivity and improve efficiency

as we have shown. There is significant value therefore in delivering core public services on mobile. Investment is

needed in robustness and security for data delivery to be reliable enough for mission-critical distribution services. Two

changes will help mobile operators to make a case for this investment:

Digital dividend spectrum to improve in-building robustness and broadband coverage in rural areas

• Confidence in demand levels – which can be created by government committing services to delivery on mobile

The EC should set targets for getting health and education services online across member states and ensure that all

(existing and new) ePublic Services are mobile enabled.

The efficiency and engagement impacts of ‘mobilising’ public services are significant, as we have shown. Clearly there

are upfront capital requirements to optimise ePublic Services for mobile and ensure seamless integration of systems but

by setting targets the EC can lead this migration.

In terms of healthcare, top-down political impetus is crucial. The buyers in healthcare are fragmented regional health

authorities with no co-ordinated procurement, and no funding certainty year-to-year making them highly risk averse in

terms of new technology investment. A set of clear guidelines and targets would allow national health organisations to

change the long term strategy and support these changes at the regional level.

Member state governments should incorporate ICT into utility and infrastructure policies, recognising the role

mobile can play in areas such as smart grids and traffic management. Specifically, it should also support the role of

mobile and other existing, standardised wireless networks in M2M solutions.

150 Application of Council Recommendation on the Limitation of Exposure to EM Fields, 2008, European Commission

151 Health, Environment and Society: Second Mobile Communications Seminar, 2004, GSMA and MMF

152 Health Concerns Associated with Electromagnetic Fields, 2009, European Parliament

153 Building Mobile Networks: European Mobile Operator Responses to Public Concerns, Nov 2007, GSMA

154 Tele2 and Telenor to Jointly Build LTE Network in Sweden, Apr 2009, Cellular News

155 Alternative Power for Mobile Telephony Base Stations, 2007, Motorola

156 Mobile Infrastructure Sharing, 2008, GSMA

Legal information 31

Historically, ICT policy has been unrelated to, and therefore separate from, utility and infrastructure policy. Given the

potential of M2M, policy making now needs to take a more joined-up approach. To optimise M2M roll-outs it is

important to have scale and standardisation for interoperability and future-proofing. We therefore request that member

state governments secure a role for existing mobile and wireless networks in M2M solutions rather than supporting

new, more costly and non-standardised private networks.

The EC should develop EU-wide energy efficiency and smart building policies for homes and offices to stimulate

demand, and lead in this area by implementing ‘smart’ technology in its own buildings. They should also support

consumer educational and marketing efforts to bring about behavioural changes to maximise the impact of M2M

embedded technologies.

By putting in place policies around the implementation of M2M in homes and offices, member states can drive up-take,

thereby creating economies of scale in the market and stimulating R&D investment. Once smart technologies are

implemented, behavioural change is needed to maximise their impact. Member states can support this behavioural shift

through consumer educational and marketing efforts.

Consumer education – promote user responsibility for online data and security

The EC should collaborate with stakeholders (device manufacturers, SIM manufacturers, operating system

developers, application developers, vendors and online service providers) to understand the privacy and security

challenges of mobile broadband, and help to raise consumer awareness. The EC should help redefine a sustainable

relationship between users and suppliers of digital services, such that users assume responsibility for the privacy and

security of their data online and suppliers provide tools to help them manage this.

The usage, and therefore value, of online content and services is maximised in an environment where trust exists

between consumers and providers. It is not sustainable for service providers to try to police the entire web, and all usage

thereof. What they can do however is provide tools (such as digital signatures and site certification prompts) for users to

protect their own data, and protect their children during web usage. These tools will become increasingly important as

eMoney is rolled-out. In a world with available, user-friendly tools, users are empowered to take responsibility for their

own privacy and security. The EC can also play an important role in raising consumer awareness about privacy and

security issues (engaging with ENISA) and facilitating the uptake of these tools.

The EC should consolidate the numerous fragmented programmes within the EU looking at the issues of privacy,

identity, trust and safety, and it needs to be drive consistency in the interpretation and application of privacy laws.

A plethora of programmes exist across the EU related to privacy, identity, trust and safety, each with their aims and

recommendations. To create a consistent, coherent and sustainable framework, the EC needs to bring these together.

Moreover, there needs to be consistency in the interpretation and application of privacy laws. The Green Knowledge

Society report goes even further to suggest a new body of law: “We need to move towards a coherent and overarching

ICT policy as the way governments support a ‘knowledge society’. Such a policy should embrace the rigour of

consumer protection ... with its own body of administrative law, such as that concerning privacy, online profiling and

157

retention of data.”

Network management – continued flexibility to preserve choice and quality of service

The EC should continue to support operators employing ‘reasonable’ network management and managing dynamic

traffic patterns.

The mobile industry is an important enabler of digital services. Mobile operators are investing in their networks and

innovating services, in order to offer consumers choice and a wide portfolio of options to suit their particular needs and

interests.

To deliver existing and new internet services whilst supporting the corresponding increase in data volumes, operators

need to manage traffic. This is to ensure networks run smoothly, deliver services reliably and meet the expected

customer experience for all services. This is particularly important for mobile operators, who need to manage the

157 A Green Knowledge Society, Sep 2009, SCF Associates

Legal information 32

appropriate allocation of finite radio spectrum capacity and dynamic traffic patterns across a wide range of services and

customers.

Different services require different treatment by the network, voice traffic needs to be ‘real time’ where as video

downloads can be buffered without impacting the overall experience. Consumers and business have high expectations

about the standard at which networks operate and services are delivered. Operators want to maximise customers’

experience, by ensuring that all services are provided according to their particular quality requirements; traffic

management enables this.

Operators need to provide high quality services to all customers – citizens, public and private organisations.. Operators

have to safeguard overall network performance, by managing applications and services that might harm the experience

of others. A network’s scarce resources have to be shared between multiple consumers, using different services.

Innovation in services is also driven by network management capability. New services are emerging that, in a ‘best-

effort’ environment, could not be successfully provided. Mobile internet services continue to evolve, from the text-

based browsing of the early days, to enabling a full internet browsing experience via the mobile broadband connections

of today, to new innovative IP-based services, such as location-based applications and video conferencing. This has

been made possible by significant investment in network technologies, as well as advances and innovations in network

management techniques. Services in the future will be ever more sophisticated. In order to deliver the right customer

experience, network management will be essential.

Networks need the flexibility to operate, evolve, improve and innovate.. Traffic management is essential to deliver

innovative services that work, to provide the quality of services that consumers and businesses expect, and to be able to

support new ways of doing things. It is important that EC policies support this continued development and innovation of

the internet. Restricting traffic management would limit future possibilities.

The new EU Telecoms Package provides the principles that are critical to innovation, by ensuring transparency and

enabling the industry to manage traffic effectively. We support the existing regime and would like to see it upheld to

ensure consumer choice, investment, quality of service and, crucially, the continued innovation leadership of the

European mobile industry.

Legal information 33

Legal information 34


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DESCRIZIONE DISPENSA

Questa dispensa fa riferimento al corso di Laboratorio di Mobile Services e Multicanalità tenuto dal prof. Rovelli. Nel I capitolo si descrivono i principali fattori di cambiamento dell'ITC. Il II capitolo fornisce degli schemi interpretativi dei modelli di business della imprese in un contesto di convergenza. Il III descrive scenari alternativi; nel IV capitolo viene descritta l'evoluzione degli assetti concorrenziali del settore delle TLC. Il V capitolo descrive le performances economico/finanziare della imprese italiane di TLC.


DETTAGLI
Corso di laurea: Corso di laurea magistrale in industria culturale e comunicazione digitale
SSD:
A.A.: 2010-2011

I contenuti di questa pagina costituiscono rielaborazioni personali del Publisher Atreyu di informazioni apprese con la frequenza delle lezioni di LABORATORIO DI MOBILE SERVICES E MULTICANALITA' e studio autonomo di eventuali libri di riferimento in preparazione dell'esame finale o della tesi. Non devono intendersi come materiale ufficiale dell'università La Sapienza - Uniroma1 o del prof Rovelli Massimo.

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